The future of Niger, a key country in the unstable Sahel, is up in the air. International pressure, including from neighboring states, continued to mount yesterday on the coup junta that took power on Wednesday. Given the global context and the geopolitical interests at stake, Western chancelleries have mobilized to try to prevent Niger from also falling under the Russian orbit, as has already happened in Mali and the Central African Republic.
Meeting in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, the leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (Cedeo) sent a harsh ultimatum to General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the current strongman in Niamey, to release the president Mohamed Bazoum and “completely return to the constitutional order”. If these demands are not met within a week, ECOWAS “will take all necessary measures”, which “may include the use of force”.
Total firmness against the coup plotters was already expressed days before by the African Union, the European Union, the UN, the United States and France, a former colonial power.
It remains to be seen how this unanimous opposition will influence the coup plotters, although their control of the situation is believed to be fragile since the start of the uproar. Tchiani, who led the presidential guard (with 700 units) since 2011, did not generate a very solid consensus among the generals of the rest of the armed forces. As more details become public, it appears that the reason for the coup could be very prosaic: Tchiani was ahead of his likely dismissal. This general had amassed much power and a considerable fortune during the years he led the presidential guard.
The Nigerien junta adopted a defensive and conspiratorial attitude on Saturday, anticipating hypothetical scenarios. The coup plotters denounced that the Abuja summit was aimed at “validating a plan of aggression against Niger”, which would materialize in “an imminent military intervention in Niamey in collaboration with non-member countries of the organization and some Western countries”, said a statement read on state television.
In the midst of this tense atmosphere, a demonstration took place in front of the French embassy in which slogans were chanted against the old metropolis and in favor of Russia and Vladimir Putin while waving Russian flags. It was difficult to discern whether it was a spontaneous or orchestrated riot. It is possible that the coup plotters are waving the specter of Russia as a blackmail strategy against those working to make the coup fail. The situation remains confusing and volatile.
France, which maintains in Niger 1,500 soldiers, Mirage fighter-bombers and Reaper drones involved in the anti-jihadist fight, reacted to the demonstration in front of its diplomatic headquarters. The Élysée made it clear that Paris will respond “immediately and inflexibly” in the event of an attack against French residents in Niger. Macron “will not tolerate any attack against France and its interests”. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs recalled that “Nigerian forces have the obligation to guarantee the security of our diplomatic facilities”.
The latest events in Niger have been greeted with great concern and barely concealed frustration in Paris, as they represent another realization of the fiasco of French policy in the Sahel over the past ten years. Even if the blow was finally neutralized, the feeling of precariousness and uncertainty about the future would remain.
Niger, with an area of ??more than 1.2 million square kilometers – more than double that of continental France – and 25 million inhabitants, was a colony integrated into French West Africa. It achieved independence in 1960. Several factors contribute to the country’s strategic value: it is a point of contact between sub-Saharan Africa and the Maghreb, a place that is subject to migratory flows and does not have large uranium deposits.
After the French withdrawal from Mali and Burkina Faso, due to the hostility of the coup juntas in both countries and public opinions – manipulated by Russian propaganda – that fueled anti-French resentment, Paris concentrated its soldiers in the Niger, which seemed to be the most reliable country and which also housed – until today – troops from the United States and other European countries.
Coincidentally, the news of the coup in Niamey coincided with Macron’s tour of the Pacific. The French president claimed influence in that area of ??the world, to compete with giants such as China and the United States, when Paris once again suffered a humiliating setback in the part of Africa that was, for more than a century, the its true private yard, first under the colonial form and then with methods of political, economic and military tutelage.
The military intervention in the Sahel, in 2013, was decided by the then president François Hollande to save the Government of Mali due to the advance of the Islamist guerrillas on the capital, Bamako. Operation Serval – later renamed Barjan – was initially successful, but then stalled. Barjan ended up becoming a kind of Afghanistan for France, which invested huge resources in an almost sterile effort. With 5,000 soldiers it was impossible to control a huge space, bigger than the EU, and transform countries plagued by corruption, drug and human trafficking, tribal struggles and radical Islamism. The French military leaders themselves recognized that they had been assigned an impossible mission. Macron finally decided to end Barjan last year, although he kept a contingent in Niger for occasional operations. The future of that base today is an unknown.
The French press has not spared self-criticism. Le Figaro warned in an editorial that the domino theory – of countries that could fall under the Soviet orbit – that so obsessed the West during the Cold War is indeed materializing in the Sahel. Le Monde, for its part, questioned the policy of Paris in Africa and argued that “the fact that priority has been given to security, without taking into account the standard of living of the affected populations, in show the limits”.