U.S. President Joe Biden said there was still a “very strong” chance of a Russian invasion within the next “several day.” Russia also expelled a senior U.S. diplomat from Moscow in an apparent unprovoked act.
After Moscow claimed it was returning troops from bases, NATO allies stated that Russia is in fact building up forces close to Ukraine. During the same time, the Russia-backed rebels of its east accused Ukraine of intensifying shelling along the contact line in Donetsk/Luhansk.
U.S. Secretary Of State Antony Blinken was on his way to Germany for an annual security conference. He was rerouted by the United Nations to promote diplomatic solutions.
Here are some examples of what is happening and why.
WHAT WE DO and DON’T KNOW ON The GROUND
Russia claims it has moved its troops out of the conflict zone. NATO allies claim that Russia has moved its troops away from the conflict zone.
NATO allies accuse Russia for misleading the world. They claim that some 7,000 troops were being sent back to their bases. Instead, they are moving in thousands of more.
Maxar Technologies, a commercial satellite imaging company, reported that Russia has continued to increase military activity in the vicinity of Ukraine. This included a new pontoon bridge in Belarus and a field hospital in Belarus.
Russia has reportedly gathered over 150,000 troops on the three sides of Ukraine in the last week, but denies that it is planning an invasion.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Russia has enough troops and sufficient capabilities to launch an invasion of Ukraine without warning. This is why the situation is so dangerous.
He said, “The fact you put a battle tank onto a train and move it in one direction doesn’t prove that there is a withdrawal of troops.” It must be a meaningful withdrawal or de-escalation.
Shelling along the border in Ukraine’s separatist-controlled east also has fueled speculation that Russia might be creating a pretext to invade Ukraine. This specter has been raised by a sharp rise in skirmishes in the last few days.
Separatist authorities in Luhansk reported an increase in Ukrainian bombardment in the wake of the latest incident. After being shelled by its own forces, the Ukrainian military claimed it hadn’t fired back. Two civilians were also injured by the shells that struck a kindergarten.
What do SATELLITES SHOW YOU?
Satellite imagery from Russia showing the positions of its troops in Ukraine is widely available and gives a bird’s eye view of an international crisis. However, the images are not without limitations.
Recent high-resolution photographs taken by commercial satellite companies have confirmed that Russian forces are located within striking distances from Ukraine. They could not give any definitive information on net additions and subtractions of Russian forces, nor can they reveal when or if an invasion of Ukraine will occur. Even satellite photos from just a few days ago might not show significant ground changes in such a volatile situation.
U.S. intelligence agencies and military can get a better understanding of the situation by combining satellite imagery with live video, as well as electronic information gathered by aircraft like the Air Force’s RC-135 Rivet joint. This information is in addition to information gleaned from human sources.
THE DIPLOMATIC FRONT
Russia expelled the second highest-ranking U.S. diplomat from Moscow after NATO and EU officials gave assurances there was still diplomacy.
Washington claimed that the U.S. deputy chief mission Bart Gorman’s expulsion was an unprovoked increase in tensions. The State Department stated that they are considering their response.
HOW DO THE UNITED STATES VIEW A RUSSIAN INVASION UNFOLDING
On Thursday, Blinken appeared before the U.N. Security Council to draw out Washington’s plan for an attack. He revealed conclusions from U.S intelligence that will help Britain and the United States prevent any Russian invasion plans. The United States has refused to disclose most of its evidence regarding Russia’s plans.
Blinken stated to U.N. diplomats that Russia would stage a sudden and violent event in order to justify its invasion. He said that he didn’t know the exact pretext — a “so called terrorist bombing” in Russia, a staged drone strike or fake attack using chemical weapons.
According to America’s top diplomat, the military attack would begin with cyber attacks and missiles and bombs being dropped across Ukraine. Blinken outlined the U.S.’s view of Russia entering Kyiv, which is home to nearly 3 million people. He also described other key targets “that have been already identified and mapped.”
Blinken stated to the U.N. that U.S. intelligence had indicated Russia would target “specific” groups of Ukrainians. He did not give details. Blinken impliedly nodded to Colin Powell’s 2003 appearance before the Security Council, where Powell used false U.S. intelligence as a justification for the U.S. invasion. I’m here today to stop a war.
MOSCOW: WHAT DO YOU SAY?
Russia reiterated its demands for the U.S. to exclude Ukraine from NATO on Thursday, but left the door open to talks on other security issues.
The Russian Foreign Ministry gave its formal response to the U.S. security proposals, and it was later published on its website.
This document denies that Russia intends to invade Ukraine. However, it reiterates that NATO’s expansion into Ukraine and other exSoviet countries would be a “redline” for Russia.
Moscow says it will press its demands that NATO not expand further and that the alliance pull back its forces in Eastern Europe. It could also take unspecified military-technical steps if the West continues ignores them.
It also stated that Russia is open to discussing measures to increase security in Europe, including negotiating limits to missile deployments and restrictions on patrol flights of strategic bombers, as well as other confidence-building steps, provided they are discussed alongside Moscow’s main proposals.
HOW DO UKRAINIANS ACT?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian President, suggested that NATO membership was a distant dream for his nation. He blamed both Russia and unidentified NATO members.
Zelenskyy stated that it is not the Ukrainian people that decide when they will join NATO. It depends on 30 countries to agree to this decision.
WHAT DOES NATO DO?
Stoltenberg opened a meeting of defense ministers of the alliance in Brussels and stated that Russia had “yet again shown its disregard for European security principles, and its willingness and ability to threaten force in pursuit its objectives.”
The U.S. Defense secretary Lloyd Austin stated to reporters in Brussels that Russia is moving troops closer to the border and flying more combat and support planes.
“We see them improve their readiness in Black Sea. He said that they even stock up on blood supplies. “These aren’t things you do for no reason. And you don’t do them when you’re packing up to go home.”
The alliance is also strengthening its eastern regions.
The U.S. began to send 5,000 troops to Poland, and Romania. Britain has sent hundreds of soldiers to Poland, and offered more warships or planes. It is also increasing the personnel presence in Estonia by doubling it and sending tanks, armored fighting vehicles and other support. Additional troops are being sent to Lithuania by Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands.
