It would be difficult to find two Republican incumbents that attracted more attention from former President Donald Trump than Georgia Governor. Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger, Georgia Secretary of State.
Both won hugely in Tuesday’s primaries against Trump-recruited challengers, who campaigned on Trump’s election lies.
According to results as of Wednesday, noon ET, Kemp won by 50 percent and Raffensperger almost 20 percent.
Background: Trump narrowly lost Georgia to him in the 2020 presidential election. He claimed the election was stolen, despite multiple recounts.
Kemp wouldn’t agree with that, nor would Raffensperger who is the top state election official. In a Jan 2021 call, Trump asked Raffensperger to “find him the votes”
Trump said to Raffensperger and his staff, “Fellas I need 11,000 votes.” “Give me a break.”
Trump became furious with Georgia’s election officials and set out to expel them from office. To defeat Raffensperger, he recruited ex-Sen. David Perdue and Rep. Jody Hyice.
What happened then? What happened?
What happened to Kemp and Raffensperger, Georgia? These are three theories:
This country has a high rate of reelection for incumbents. It is easier to vote again for someone who has voted for a candidate once they have voted. They are well-known for their track record and have established a brand.
This is certainly true in Georgia, where Kemp, for example, praised conservative-backed measures he signed into law such as a voting overhaul and his past record in defeating Democrat Stacey Abrams during a general election matchup.
Trump is the king of Republican politics in most places. Trump has taken control of the Republican National Committee, state parties and most other areas. Even candidates he doesn’t endorse have gone MAGA and kissed the ring, hoping that Trump’s endorsement will shine down on them.
Georgia was not like other states in that its top officials sided with Trump in different ways. Kemp, Raffensperger, and Lt. Governor. Geoff Duncan, Kemp, Raffensperger and Lt. Gov. all placed a certain distance between them and Trump.
Kemp was accompanied by some ex-Trump friends-turned-foes like the former New Jersey Governor. Chris Christie and Mike Pence, former Vice President. Kemp did not take on Trump as seriously as he made him irrelevant during his campaign.
Duncan, however, was right after Trump and created a Republican advocacy organization called GOP 2.0. It ran ads during the campaign season.
Duncan claims in an ad that inflation is at a 40 year high. “Open borders. National security threats. Some politicians prefer to talk about past losses and conspiracy theories. Allowing liberal extremists to lead us in the wrong direction is a mistake that our country cannot afford. We need to be focused on the future and rebuilding our party. However, I’m not the only one who believes there is a better way.
Duncan was not on the ballot. He opted to not run again. Trump-backed Burt Jones is leading his race to be lieutenant governor. It may even go to a runoff.
However, Republican strategist Kevin Madden, who was a senior adviser to Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaigns, said that the effort was needed a year after the Jan. 6, insurrection. He said that Republicans were not “directly communicating” with the base and instead “reacting to Trump’s factor.”
Madden stated that no one has taken him on direct. “They’ve all been reactionary and they’ve all given the rostrum over to him.”
A sustained campaign against Trumpism takes a lot of effort. But it’s been more successful in Georgia than elsewhere.
Trump’s potential waning influence on his base has been the subject of much discussion.
This shouldn’t be exaggerated. Trump is still very popular in the GOP; he holds many levers of power within it; as noted, many candidates try to be like Trump; and he will still be the front-runner for Republican presidential nomination 2024.
Trump’s popularity has declined among GOP base members in one important measure, aEUR”, which measures how strongly Republicans view him.
Harry Enten, a CNN reporter, found that Trump’s “very positive” rating in an average of surveys has dropped nearly 20 points since the day before the 2020 election.
This is a substantial decline and it shows that the further an individual gets from power the less influence they may have.
Duncan said to Axios that he has hundreds of years of history showing us how former presidents lose their influence each day they are out of office. “And Donald Trump aEUR”, even though he wishes that it weren’t so. aEUR is no different.”
– The Bush era is over: Tuesday marked the end of the Bush era of politics. George P. Bush is the son of an ex-Florida governor. Jeb Bush was defeated in his bid to become Texas Attorney General against scandal-plagued Ken Paxton.
Bush will continue to serve as land commissioner through the end of the year. However, the Texas Tribune reports that Bush’s departure “heralds an important shift in Texas Republican politics away form the pro-business establishment towards a populist, combative, and harsh style.”
Bush tried to get Trump’s endorsement even though he was teasing that Trump liked Bush. This shows that the GOP’s power in Texas is shifting away from Bush and in favor of Trump.
– Too close for comfort: Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar is still locked in a runoff that is too close to call. Progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros is also locked in a race that is too close to call. Cuellar is the name ID and the power of the incumbent, but he is also the only Democrat in Congress that is against abortion rights. This has been more prominent since the Supreme Court leak and he is pushing against the new left-leaning Democratic Party.
