The President of the United States, Joe Biden, has run out of intermediate options to stop Iran’s military expansion.
Since October 7, its armed forces have suffered more than 160 attacks in the Middle East. The deadliest was Sunday: three soldiers killed and more than forty wounded at Tower 22, a remote base on the border between Iraq, Jordan and Syria. On Tuesday, Biden announced that he had already decided on the response to this attack. However, none of the measures taken against Iran and its allies have worked. Despite economic sanctions and airstrikes, the Houthis continue to impose their law in the Red Sea, while pro-Iranian armed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria have maintained their offensive capability.
Yesterday Hossein Salami, head of the Guardians of the Revolution, assured that Iran “does not want a war” with the United States. At the same time, Kataeb Hizbullah, the pro-Iranian militia in Iraq that is believed to have sent the drone that reached Tower 22 on Sunday, announced that it is suspending military operations against Israel and the United States.
Having pulled the strings to the maximum, Iran folds its sails because it knows that the only effective response left to Biden is a direct attack.
The Pentagon has a well-studied list of targets. Iran has been a direct rival since 1979. Fifteen years ago, with the help of Israel, it launched a cyber attack against the nuclear program that delayed the development of the atomic bomb by a couple of years. In 2015, it was about to launch another one against air defenses, communications systems and the power grid, but it was called off, because Iran then signed the nuclear deal, i.e. the commitment to give up at the pump, today completely discarded.
Biden has made the decision to punish Iran and its allies, but he has also said that “I don’t think we need a bigger war in the Middle East”. This election year he does not want to run the risk of a military fiasco.
The US and the EU are also unable to apply further economic sanctions. Those that are in force affect all sectors of the economy, and also the elite of a regime that, despite this, always finds a way to avoid them. China, for example, continues to buy oil from it.
Iran does not want to be the target of a direct attack by the United States. He is very comfortable running the Axis of Resistance, that is, the Islamist and jihadist militias that pressure Israel and the United States throughout the region. It pays no price.
That is why he immediately distanced himself from the drone that fell on Tower 22 and, together with Iraq, got Kataeb Hizbullah, the strongest of the pro-Iranian militias, to announce a ceasefire yesterday.
The Islamic Republic of Iran knows that a direct confrontation with the United States will ignite the Middle East. The Gulf monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, with which he restored relations last year, will not come to his defense. Also, the strong internal dissidence would find new forces to oppose an oppressive regime that imprisons, tortures and murders women who do not wear veils and is unable to put an end to the economic crisis.
Biden could exploit this weakness, but the risk is huge. Israel, which has not yet defeated Hamas in Gaza, should face an even greater challenge, that of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Common sense dictates prudence and tactics that, without attracting attention, accelerate the end of the ayatollahs.
