These lines are written on the first day of the confrontation, which began on Saturday, between Hamas and Israel. I can imagine that, in the coming days, the Palestinian death toll will reach much higher numbers; and that there will be many people not involved, on both sides, who will die. In vain
Yes, it was a big surprise. Yes, Hamas has managed to surprise Israel and prepare a complex operation right in front of its nose. There has been no particular trigger to explain it or prepare Israel to face an attack of this nature, so one must ask: What is Hamas’s purpose?
I have listened carefully to Muhammad Deif, the enigmatic military chief of Hamas, and the long list of demands on Israel. He was waiting for the conclusion, to understand what he was asking for as a reward for the organization. The answer: a ceasefire…
Hamas, unlike the PLO, has never been willing to recognize Israel or talk about peace considering a two-state solution. He is willing to sacrifice one generation after another in favor of the unattainable goal of eliminating Israel. He knows in advance that Israel cannot afford to ignore such a high death toll, and that hundreds, if not thousands, of people will now die. He knows that those who distribute sweets today to celebrate the surprise attack may be dead tomorrow, despite the fact that the leaders will be safe in the appropriate shelters.
Hamas rejected the Oslo agreement; nevertheless, he participated in the parliamentary elections established by the aforementioned agreement and obtained the majority. The vision of Hamas is a region-wide Islamic entity; he is not interested in nation states.
Former Israeli Minister Ariel Sharon’s decision to withdraw from the Gaza Strip (a decision that was carried out without the cooperation of the PLO) was an unexpected gift to Hamas, which took away its area in Al-Fatah. Hamas is a typical Islamist movement, very authoritarian, which attacks human rights and, especially, women’s rights; and it means bad news for most of the two million Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip. There is a growing consensus in Israel that the only way to deal with the situation is to end its rule in Gaza and the endless threat to Israel. It won’t be very simple, this means a ground war and it means casualties; but it is a fact that seems increasingly inevitable.
The aforementioned war will have direct repercussions in the Israeli political sphere. Yair Lapid, the head of the opposition, has proposed to form an emergency government, which means ending the 10 months of the far-right government. Until now, the center-left parties had refused to participate in the government because of the ongoing trial in which Netanyahu is accused of taking bribes. In December, when he was forced to choose between integrating the ultra-nationalist religious party into the coalition or giving up power, Netanyahu chose power and found himself with a handful of extremists who have made his life impossible. Unexpectedly, Hamas has made his life more comfortable, as he is now set to lead the war against this movement. There is no doubt that, in an eventuality like this, the ultra-right party would have demanded that he adopt extreme measures; now, without it, he will be able to make much more reasonable decisions.
The next question is what impact will a unity government have on the current opposition parties that, apparently, will join it. Maintaining the position they have had so far would allow them to harshly criticize the fact that the government has been completely surprised by the attack by Hamas; on the other hand, if they join the government, the voters may not remember that they were still in the opposition when it all started. And there is also another issue: in most cases, wars do not end as they begin, and the centrist parties may have to share the blame with Netanyahu.
However, the most important issue is that both Lapid and Benny Gantz (leader of a small centrist party) promised voters not to participate in a unity government and made the issue their main electoral commitment. Will voters judge the Hamas attack as a reason to break the promise?
Needless to say, if they join Netanyahu’s government, the prime minister will abandon the problematic planned judicial changes, changes that would have turned Israel into another Hungary. Once this happens, the weekly demonstrations in Tel-Aviv against the judicial revolution will end. Netanyahu will be virtually guaranteed the full four years of his mandate…
Whatever happens, a different political scenario will now be created than the one that emerged after the last election. A few hours of a completely unexpected attack by Hamas can have unexpected consequences.
Translation by Juan Gabriel López Guix
