The apparent electoral defeat faced by the members of the current coalition Government does not entirely correspond to the levels of approval that their political work has generated during the last four years. It is true that more than 50% of those consulted by Ipsos suspend their action, but an appreciable 43% give it an approval. In addition, the percentage of disapproval is nourished by a merciless critical assessment of the voters of the center and right (with disapproval rates that exceed 90%), although also a significant percentage (which touches 30%) of ‘former socialist voters.
Even so, a hypothetical government presided over by the popular Alberto Núñez Feijóo does not seem like a better alternative for the Spanish. Up to 36% of those consulted consider that that hypothetical cabinet would have done “worse than the current one” and another 16%, “just as bad”. Conversely, 32% think that an executive chaired by Feijóo would have done better and another 8% “just as well” as Pedro Sánchez. 58% of Socialist voters and almost 90% of Podemos voters believe that the popular leader would have done worse, while more than 70% of right-wing voters believe that he would have done better.
However, if we delve into the reasons that explain the disapproval of the Central Government’s work, a set of decisions and measures appear that should not be surprising. The list of electorally “toxic” issues is more than predictable: the parliamentary relationship with ERC or Bildu, the pardon to the leaders of the process, the reform of the penal code to repeal the crime of sedition, or the law of only yes is yes.
The most relevant thing on this list is that the issue that would have had the most impact on the coalition Government’s disapproval would be precisely the fiasco of the sexual freedom law. This topic is the one with the highest rate of disapproval (7.7), slightly above the reform of the Penal Code on the crime of sedition or the parliamentary relationship with Esquerra and Bildu (7.6). Of course, the disapproval of the law of only yes is yes is much more intense among conservative voters than among those on the left.
So, while more than 60% of PP voters and almost 70% of Vox voters say that the sexual freedom law “has influenced them a lot” in their decision to disapprove of the Government, among PSOE voters this percentage falls to 43% (and to 23% among those from Unides Podemos). And in the case of the reform of the crime of sedition, the percentages are similar among right-wing voters (nearly 70% reveal that it has influenced them a lot), but they grow among PSOE voters: up to 45 % of socialist voters who disapprove of the Central Government explain that this issue has influenced them a lot.
Now, and even if it appears in fourth position among the issues that most influence the disapproval of the Government, the pardon for the leaders of the process registers impressive figures. The first is that 55% (the highest rate among those who suspend the Government) point out that this affair has influenced them a lot (compared to 51% in the case of the sexual freedom law). And, at the same time, almost half of the PSOE voters who disapprove of the Executive say that this issue has influenced them a lot.
Finally, it is noteworthy that in a context of economic growth and job creation, the management of the economy is the second most relevant reason among those suspending the Government. It is true that only 41% say that this issue has influenced them a lot, but if you also count those consulted who indicate that it has influenced them a lot, then this percentage would be close to 60% among PSOE voters who disapprove of the ‘ Executive or among those to his left.
Some data may help to understand these appreciations. On the one hand, in the perception of the global economic situation, negative opinions dominate (55% against 34%). And on the other hand, although 65% admit that their personal economic situation is good, even 20% of PSOE voters reveal that it is “bad or very bad”, a rate that reaches 33% among Vox voters.
