Inflation in November stood at 3.2%, three tenths less than the previous month, so that the two elements that were already noted with the advanced data are confirmed. On the one hand, that pensions will rise by 3.8% in 2024, since the average annual inflation from December 2022 to November of this year is used for the calculation; and, on the other hand, that prices are moderating after a year that started with a CPI of 6% and that has since had many ups and downs.
The brake on prices is consolidating, despite the fact that the foreseeable partial withdrawal of anti-crisis measures from January may lead to a rise of up to eight tenths in 2024 as a whole.
The moderation in inflation is based on the drop in the prices of fuel and tourist packages and food, which increased less than in the same month last year. Specifically, they increased by 9%, which means half a point less than the previous month and the second month in a row in which the percentage dropped by 10%. A gradual but slow deceleration.
The INE indicates that what most influences the evolution “is the drop in the prices of bread and cereals and milk, eggs and cheese, compared to the increases of the previous year, and that the prices of meat have increased less than November 2022”.
On the other hand, olive oil remains intractable, with a price increase of 67%. If we examine the intermonthly, that is to say, in relation to October of this year, the increase is 4.7%, and, if we go further, to February 2021, then the increase reaches 164%. An olive oil that has a weight of 0.5% in the IPC basket and that has the impact of climate and drought.
The price of rice, legumes and vegetables, and confectionery products also rose, but by a long distance, with 17%.
If 2022 was the year of great inflation, the current financial year has been that of turbulent deceleration, which reached its lowest point in June, when it was below 2%, the target sought the ECB, and then went up again until October, and with November that marked a moderation to the aforementioned 3.2%.
As for core inflation, which does not take into account energy or fresh food, it slows down significantly. It is seven tenths less than in October, and stands at 4.5%. A good data that confirms the progressive deceleration of the rate, which is considered more stable and therefore the one that indicates the underlying trends. In this sense, it is the lowest since April last year.
“Disinflation is already unstoppable with only one doubt, the impact that the reversal of the anti-inflation measures that the Spanish Government must decide before the end of the year will have,” says Raymond Torres, from Funcas. Measures that will be partially and gradually withdrawn, which may mean a rise of eight tenths of next year’s inflation, so that the average in 2024 may be very similar to this year’s, around 3.5%.
For his part, Manuel Hidalgo, Professor of Economics at Pablo de Olavide University, agrees that “we are in a phase of price moderation, which, unless there is a major surprise, will remain and continue. We need to see how some variables develop, such as wages.”
The November figure serves to set the indexation of next year’s pensions, which remains at an increase of 3.8%, so that the average retirement pension will increase by 734 euros in total for the year. On the other hand, the increase in widowhood pensions with family burden will be up to 14%, that of the minimum, between 5% and 7%, and that of the non-contributory, of a 6.9%
