In the penultimate week of the year, from December 18 to 24, the trend towards an increase in acute respiratory infections (ARI) continued in Catalonia. The growth of influenza in the pediatric population compared to the previous week is noteworthy, according to data from the Information System for the Surveillance of Infections in Catalonia (Sivic). Hospital pressure has barely changed compared to previous records, but specialists consulted predict a health collapse after Reis, basically due to the increase in cases related to the interactions of the Christmas holidays.
The Ministry of Health has published a series of recommendations in view of the “resurgence of flu and covid”, including “use a mask when you have respiratory symptoms”. In addition to the mask, Sanitat insists on hand hygiene with soap and water or with hydroalcoholic gel, recommends vaccination against respiratory microorganisms and suggests avoiding, as far as possible, “going to the workplace with symptoms of illness “. In the same vein, the Ministry of Health of Murcia has recommended the use of masks for the elderly, people with chronic diseases and pregnant women.
After six consecutive weeks of growth in the incidence of respiratory infections, with the expected exception of the closure of the Purísima bridge at the beginning of December, in the last week 71,643 cases have been diagnosed in Catalan primary care centers ( 66,678 the previous week), which means a rate of 909 affected per 100,000 inhabitants, ever closer to the high epidemic level (1002.26), and a greater incidence than last year.
For pathologies, the Department of Health indicates that the upward trend of the epidemic wave of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) continues. “The level of incidence of flu is higher than last year and that of RSV is clearly lower”, he points out. In the meantime, “the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 seems to be stabilizing and related income has fallen”.
Thus, influenza is the most frequent source of infections, with 22.6% of the samples, followed by rhinovirus (17.9%), covid (14.6%) and RSV (13.2% ). 10,077 cases of flu have been registered, a third more than the previous week. The growth of this disease among the pediatric population stands out. In one week, the incidence has doubled in the 0 to 4 year age range (from 449 to 992 cases in the last week analyzed) and has increased even more in the 5 to 14 year old segment (from 623 to 1,413) . As in adults, influenza is the most circulating virus among children, accounting for 42% of infections, with RSV in second place (18.8%). With two flu peaks, last season was atypical. The first took place in week 51, the penultimate week of the year, with 8,419 diagnoses. This season there have been 10,077 diagnoses and the curve, quite steep, does not seem to have peaked any time soon (last season it went down between now and the third week of the year before ‘undertake a new and strong ascent).
Health experts predicted the peak circulation of respiratory viruses in mid-December, but the curve has not yet bent. However, the behavior of the different classes is becoming clearer, with the flu prevailing and covid in a stable situation, which has resulted in a decrease in income. Primary care detected 6,108 cases in the last week (6,058 the previous week), with the 15-44-year-old (1,990) and 45-59-year-old (1,744) sectors being the most affected. The covid situation is very similar to that of last season on these dates, with 13 admitted to the hospital (the same number as the previous week) and a decrease in the number of admitted patients: 571 compared to 544 of the previous count.
The rise of influenza, the stable situation of SARS-CoV-2 and the downward trend of RSV reduce the chances of a triple circulation taking place, an unprecedented fact. The normal thing, as is happening, is that one class (influenza, currently) clearly dominates the other respiratory viruses.
On the other hand, the number of pneumonias diagnosed in primary care, higher than expected, exceeds the forecasts of the Department of Health.
The behavior of temperatures also influences the fact that the situation of hospital emergencies is generally within tolerable limits, similar to that of other years for these dates, point out sources from the centers (hospital pressure systematically decreases during festive periods) .
But the clearly upward dynamics of viruses such as the flu, the interactions that take place during the holidays and the possible arrival of the cold worry the professionals consulted. They talk about a probable collapse of emergency rooms and outpatient clinics right after Reis.