The presence of former President Donald Trump in the Republican primaries has been almost constant. Many candidates have made pilgrimages to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in order to get his endorsement.
Trump used his endorsement to retaliate against GOP officeholders, most notably those who opposed his attempt to reverse the 2020 election results.
With several weeks of primaries over, however, there is a trend: Republican voters aEUR”, even those who believe Trump was a great President aEUR”, aren’t marching in lockstep. Instead, many are ignoring his endorsements.
Dallas Woodhouse, a veteran GOP strategist, said that “Republican voters do not exist in a monolithic manner.” They aren’t stumbling over each other, waiting to hear Trump’s endorsement to make their decisions. Woodhouse said that it is a factor. However, it is not the determinant factor.
Undoubtedly, some voters have been waiting for Trump. Kathy Deal is one example. In March, Kathy Deal, a Lancaster resident, spoke to NPR. She was undecided and eager for Trump’s thoughts on the Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate.
Deal stated that “That would definitely seal the deal for sure, it’d seal it,” weeks before Trump endorsed Hillbilly Elegy author J.D. Vance would win the nomination.
One voter in Pennsylvania was not so lucky. Bob Rapp, a Trump supporter aged seventy-one years old, was unhappy that Mehmet Oz, a celebrity TV doctor, had endorsed him in the GOP Senate election there. Rapp said to NPR in April that Oz is not a conservative.
Rapp stated that some of his stances were quite liberal on his TV program. “I am just concerned that he might be a RINO [Republican by name only].
However, Trump’s disagreement over Oz didn’t affect his admiration of the former president.
Rapp stated, “No, because that’s his prerogative.” “You don’t always agree with your leaders.” He insisted that Trump’s endorsement would not influence him.
In a very close race, Oz won the nomination. Rapp later told NPR that he had voted for Dave McCormick (who conceded in a recount).
If you take a look at Trump’s endorsements so far, it is clear that his win-loss record has been strong. However, a lot of this is due to the fact that he supports popular incumbents or frontrunners like Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, who doesn’t need his support to secure his nomination.
Trump’s record in other contests is mixed.
Sarah Longwell, a long-time GOP consultant and publisher of The Bulwark website, stated that Trump’s endorsement was not a magic wand.
She has been studying the impact of Trump endorsements on certain races and found that it can give a huge boost in some cases, particularly in competitive races with many candidates. Trump’s endorsement can help create momentum and more media coverage in such contests. Longwell claims that this is what happened in Ohio’s U.S. Senate Primary.
She said, “Where there is a large group of Republicans, they’re all fighting it out, they’re all telling voters how terrible they are, people are kind of not certain who they like. And when Trump comes in with endorsements, it tends kind of elevate people within these races.”
Longwell believes that a number of factors are working together to make Vance win in Ohio.
However, not all Trump’s picks are given such a boost. This is especially true if they are the challenger trying to take down an incumbent with high-name recognition and a track history.
Consider Georgia. Trump put his credibility at risk by supporting challengers for a pair Republican incumbents. Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger, Secretary of State. Both men rebuffed Trump’s request that they use their power in order to reverse Trump’s loss of Georgia in 2020. Trump’s endorsements of these races were based entirely on the lie that the 2020 election had been stolen and that his two elected officials had betrayed him by refusing to support him in this falsehood.
Trump had a problem in these contests. Kemp and Raffensperger had broad support from GOP voters and had records of accomplishments that could be compared with Trump’s bid to vengeance.
Longwell conducts regular focus groups with Trump supporters. She met with people like Laura, who is still undecided but still had positive things to say about Trump.
Laura stated that she liked the work of Brian Kemp and appreciated his handling of COVID. She added, “The state seems like it is running smoothly to me,” to emphasize her point.
Although it’s not clear who Laura voted for, it is known that Kemp won the reelection vote by more than 50 percent. Raffensperger also won his primary, but by a significant margin of 19 points.
There’s also a North Carolina example where even a Trump endorsement could not save scandal-plagued Congressman Madison Cawthorn’s primary.
Woodhouse, a GOP strategist, believes Trump may have helped Cawthorn win in a difficult primary against a conservative challenger. Woodhouse stated that, at the most, nobody is going to blame Trump for Cawthorn losing because Cawthorn had suffered a series of self-inflicted injuries.”
He said that it did help to show how Trump endorsements have limits.
Woodhouse said that a key component of all this is the overall composition of the Republican primaries this past year aEUR” as well as the likely future.
Voters aren’t choosing between a Trump-endorsed candidate or an anti-Trump candidate in contest after contest. Nearly every GOP hopeful supports a pro-Trump agenda. Sometimes, that means support for Trump’s lies about winning 2020. But it also includes support of Trump’s positions on issues such as building a wall at the southern border and toughening trade with China aEUR”. There are many cultural issues mixed in.
Woodhouse stated that any candidate who is going forward will adopt the core issues of America First.
Even if Trump loses his candidate, Trump’s issues will still be on the winning side of these primaries.
Trump’s potential impact on the primaries is not limited to that: He’s supporting candidates for lower-ranking races in the ballot. This is unprecedented for a former president.
Longwell stated that this allows Republicans to increase their presence at key local offices that don’t usually get much attention on Election Day. “This allows people who are completely unknown and possibly even running unopposed in many cases for offices that people almost never pay attention to, raise some money, and gain some visibility.”
She said that the GOP must build a deep bench to “really fill it with people who are very much Donald Trump’s image.”
This could be Trump’s greatest impact on the 2022 election.
