The flash electoral war that President Pere Aragonès has undertaken by bringing forward the Catalan elections seems far from translating into a success for independence as a whole. An Ipsos poll by La Vanguardia, carried out between March 16 and 20, after the announcement of the electoral advance, draws a scenario in which the first party would once again be the PSC, which for the first time it would also win in seats (with a total of 41) and with a greater advantage in votes than in the last regional elections.
If in February 2021 the socialists tied for 33 seats with Esquerra, despite leading the republicans by almost 50,000 ballots, now the PSC would prevail more clearly, since both Junts (with 29 deputies) and ERC (with 26) would concede together up to a total of ten parliamentarians. In the Ipsos estimate, the Socialists (29.4%) have an advantage of more than 11 points over Junts (17.7%) and over 12 over Esquerra (16.8%).
The global losses of independence could reach a count of 12 seats if the CUP’s retreat is taken into account. And as a consequence of this, the secessionist formations would also lose their current absolute majority in Parliament. They would go from a total of 74 deputies, three years ago, to a figure of 62, now; that is, six seats short of the House majority.
The future Parliament would register more changes but, according to poll projections, it would not make governance easier. The losses of Junts (three seats), Esquerra (seven) and the CUP (two) would block the way to a new pro-independence majority, although the struggle between the forces of this sign already dynamited the stability of the last legislature and neutralized its parliamentary hegemony.
At the same time, with the significant rise of the PSC and the slight improvement of the commons (which would go from eight to nine deputies) it would not be enough to build an alternative left-wing majority (not even a relative one). Socialists and Catalonia in Common (CeC) could gather a total of 50 deputies, but they would still be 18 short of half plus one of the Chamber, and twelve below the pro-independence groups.
For its part, the right flank of the chamber would reflect a spectacular rise of the PP (which would multiply its number of seats by five, from 3 to 15) and a significant decline of Vox (which would fall from 11 to eight seats). But Ciutadans would not get representation (it got six seats in 2021), so the final balance would mean only three more deputies (23) for the conservative bloc, compared to 20 three years ago.
In any case, not even a vote like that of the Barcelona City Council, in which an unusual concurrence of the votes of the commons and the PP gave the socialist Collboni an absolute majority, would not work in the Parliament that emerges from the poll. In this case, the socialist candidate for the presidency, Salvador Illa, would need Vox’s inconceivable abstention to gather more votes in favor (65 with the PP’s 15) than against (the 62 independentists).
From there, only a left-wing tripartite led by the PSC emerged as the formula capable of guaranteeing the governability of the Chamber (with a total of 76 seats, with ERC and the commons). However, a bipartite formed by Socialists and Junts (with a total of 70 deputies) would also gather the necessary majority to govern (although in this case Carles Puigdemont would be forced to cede control to Illa as the candidate with the most votes) .
The plausibility of these expectations is based on various survey data. The first, the drive for change: 77% of those consulted by Ipsos believe that a replacement is needed at the head of the Government after the 2012 elections. And a proof of this is that the estimated turnout would rise to 59% ( more than five points than in 2021 among residents of Catalonia). Of course, the elections are 50 days away and, with 15% undecided among whom they say they will vote (that is, almost half a million votes in absolute terms), anything can still happen.
However, also among the undecided, the PSC is ahead of Esquerra or Junts, the same as Illa ahead of Puigdemont and Aragonès. In this sense, 47% of citizens see the socialists as the winners of the elections and 25% prefer them, against 16% who opt for Esquerra and 14% for Junts. Also, Salvador Illa is the most highly rated leader, as almost 50% of those consulted evaluate him positively.
In fact, preferences for the future president also favor Illa (23%), who is ten points above Puigdemont (13%) and 14 above Aragonès (9%). What’s more: the predictable impact of the refugee ex-president’s third run at the polls in Brussels seems less relevant than expected, given the polling data. For example, Puigdemont is the politician who registers a higher level of disapproval (70%) among citizens, ahead of even Vox’s candidate, Ignacio Garriga. The ex-president only approves among his voters (81%) and those of the CUP (60%), although not among those of ERC. In reality, only 27% of Catalans approve of Puigdemont’s political work, while 70% also judge negatively the work of his party in Parliament.
To all this it should be added that 63% describe the political situation in Catalonia negatively and that almost 65% (36 points more than two years ago) suspend the management of the current Government. In fact, only a third of Catalans consider that things in Catalonia are going “in the right direction”, compared to almost 55% who believe they are going “in the wrong direction” (including a third of ERC voters and more than half of Junts). In this context, it is not surprising that 60% agree with the decision to advance the elections.
