Once the covid has been left behind, Spain will again suffer an increase in the loss of talent with the emigration of more than 400,000 people in 2022. The value of this human capital that Spain loses exceeds 150,000 million, just taking into account take into account last year’s departures, according to estimates drawn up by the socio-economic research program of the BBVA-Ivie Foundation. It is 40% more than the lost value calculated for 2019, before the covid pandemic broke out.
What the researchers have done is try to calculate what income or what wealth the inhabitants of Spain could produce in the future until they die. And they have calculated the same value for those who have emigrated in 2022. According to Ivie’s estimates, the departure of emigrants reduces the future ability to create income by almost 1%. They are 158,400 million, 40% more than in 2019.
Lorenzo Serrano, researcher at the Ivie and author of the report, explains that those over 25 years of age, who are the majority of workers: around 332,000, have been analyzed in detail. Serrano explains that, obviously, the salary is the central element that explains emigration but not the only one. “The characteristics of the job or the possibility it offers to reconcile are also valued”, reflects the researcher.
The profile of the emigrant in Spain is very different depending on whether he is a native or born in another country. In the general statistics, which group both those born in Spain and those born abroad, 30% had higher education. On the other hand, among the natives, the percentage soars to 60%. It is particularly worrying for the Spanish economy, because those in the latter group have received higher education at public universities in most cases.
Serrano points out that – although there are no detailed figures – it is possible that emigrants with a low educational level are immigrants who arrived in Spain and choose to try their luck in other countries of the European Union.
The Ivie report highlights that emigration abroad, in addition to limiting the ability to generate wealth, is “a phenomenon that will predictably increase the difficulty of maintaining and continuing to develop the welfare state, especially in a context of progressive aging of the population”.
The report adds that emigration “may contribute to aggravating the serious problems of generational relief” and recalls that there are increasing difficulties “to fill vacancies” in certain sectors and professions.
According to Ivie, “the human capital of the population is the most valuable resource of countries and represents 64% of the total wealth on a global scale”, in accordance with data from the World Bank. Since this capital “is incorporated in the people themselves”, when they move, the territory of origin becomes poorer.
Throughout the last decades, the migratory balance has been positive for Spain. During the recession due to the real estate and financial crisis of 2008 and until 2014, there was a strong emigration that reached a peak in 2013, with more than half a million. “This process has gained intensity again after the pandemic”. In 2021 there were 380,000 and the forecast for the year 2022 is 425,000.
The Ivie report highlights that “its magnitude is atypical and resembles the usual figures in previous periods of crisis and increased unemployment in the Spanish economy”. The situation in 2022 was not this, because employment was increasing and the economy was growing.
“The current rate of emigration is a setback for the future production capacity of the Spanish economy”, insists Ivie. The report adds that “if it is not offset by the value of the human capital of immigrants or the future return of current emigrants, it would mean a significant net decrease in the human capital of the Spanish economy and its development possibilities” .
Serrano explains that what happens in Spain also happens in other European countries. In some sectors such as health services, at the same time that Spanish professionals emigrate, the country receives doctors from areas such as Latin America.
