In the six years following the August 2017 attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils, the number of acts of jihadist terrorism recorded in Western Europe exceeded half a hundred. France, Germany and the United Kingdom were the most affected countries, but also Norway, Belgium, Austria, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland. Many of the aforementioned incidents, if not the majority, have gone unnoticed by European citizens, perhaps with the exception of those that occurred in their own countries and which have been reported with particular attention by the national media. Surely this is due to the greater interest in other national and international matters considered more important. But also, probably, to the relatively low lethality of the attacks committed and the nature of those who carried them out.
And the fact is that, after what happened on 17-A, such bloody jihadist attacks have not occurred again in Western Europe. Only a third of the acts of jihadist terrorism perpetrated in this region of the world since then have had lethal consequences, and of those, all but one episode resulted in between one and four fatalities, with except for one case in which five people died. Always cruel figures which, in any case, are markedly below the 16 people killed in Barcelona and Cambrils. To which must be added the more than 140 injuries and almost two hundred affected by damage or psychological sequelae.
In addition, all of those acts of jihadist terrorism in Western Europe since August 2017 have been the work, each one, of a single individual who commonly acted in the manner of the so-called lone actors, these who after radicalizing – they take the initiative to attack and carry it out on their own without receiving instructions from cell leaders, leaders of jihadist organizations, or their online operators.
They act inspired by the propaganda of Al-Qaida or the Islamic State and emulating others who previously behaved like them. Not a few of the aforementioned attacks were not perceived as such by wide sectors of society, due to the logical doubts that initially arose about the motives of those lone actors, often individuals with jihadist ideas, but also with some mental health problem .
A good example of the latter are the three jihadist attacks committed in Spain since 17-A and which are barely remembered as such by many Spaniards. The first occurred on August 20, 2018 in Cornellà de Llobregat, in the province of Barcelona, ??where a 29-year-old Algerian entered a Mossos d’Esquadra police station and tried to stab police officers, without get it
The second took place on September 17, 2021 in Torre Pacheco, in the province of Murcia, when a 26-year-old Moroccan used a car to run over people on the terraces of two restaurants, killing one of them .
The third took place on January 25, 2023 in Algeciras, in the province of Cádiz, a town in the urban center of which another Moroccan, aged 25, caused the death, using a large machete, of the sacristan of a Catholic church.
Does this mean that acts of terrorism carried out by a single individual and specifically by a lone actor are the fundamental jihadist threat to which European societies are exposed today? It would be unwise to answer in the affirmative. In the short term, however, these types of attacks will continue.
The recent trend is revealing: in addition to the fifty acts of jihadist terrorism perpetrated by a single individual, since 17-A the anti-terrorist services of Western Europe have succeeded in thwarting nearly forty in the preparation stage, as well as a similar number of others preparing jihadist cells, particularly independent cells composed of supporters of the organizations that inspired them, but to whose structure they did not belong and whose leadership they did not communicate with or directly or indirectly.
Both from the Islamic State propaganda apparatus and from the territorial branches of Al-Qaida or its associated entities, such as Therik and Taliban Pakistan (TTP), calls are made to carry out acts of terrorism in Western Europe such as in retaliation for the burning of copies of the Koran in some countries in the region, where new lone actors or independent cells may continue to inspire action.
How can the proclamations of influential members of the Afghan Taliban close to the so-called Haqqani Network, who are inciting their sympathizers based in Western Europe to kill citizens or residents in the region known for their critical manifestations of the fundamentalist regime from Kabul.
However, there is already evidence that the Islamic State has begun to try, from its extensions in Central Asia or the Maghreb, to plan or facilitate high-impact terrorist operations in Western Europe. In order to attack in this region, it is also known that Jama’at Nusrat a l’Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) aspires to develop, from the territories of the Sahel under its control, the necessary capacities. So, what is likely is that this evolution will manifest itself sooner or later, despite anti-terrorist efforts, in high-lethal attacks carried out by cells directed from the central commands of some jihadist entity or related to one of them, such as it was the case of Ripoll’s cell.
F. Queens. Professor of Political Science and Security Studies. King Juan Carlos University. Distinguished associate researcher in radicalization and terrorism at the Real Instituto Elcano.