Artificial intelligence (AI) is experiencing dizzying progress that will mean an indelible improvement in productive processes. Despite the optimistic voices that minimize the impact on employment, the evidence points in the opposite direction. As AI expands cognitive capacity it becomes a force capable of replacing tasks previously exclusive to the human mind, portending job destruction on a scale unprecedented in history.
This revolution does not resemble previous technological transformations, such as the industrial revolution. At the beginning of the 19th century, machines replaced the physical strength and hands of craftsmen. A great social alarm was created in England at the time and between 1811 and 1816 the Luddites protested by violently destroying the new looms, fearing that their jobs would disappear. However, technology did not ultimately mean a decrease in the labor supply, but rather a metamorphosis of the nature of work. Will this be the outcome with AI?
Modern machines feel through sensors, which include touch, vision and hearing; they memorize trillions of data and have the ability to analyze it instantly, making autonomous decisions that can drive the response and movement of other machines or influence people. All this without requiring human intervention. The obvious question arises as to what our role will be.
John Maynard Keynes predicted that by 2030 people would work just 15 hours a week. Although this scenario seems distant, technology will gradually displace workers in more and more tasks. Despite the fact that new and unimaginable jobs will emerge (which may ultimately also end up at risk) a majority of the population useless for work will emerge, which will coexist with a minority of workers and with the owners of the machines. In many countries, the increase in productivity will make it possible to provide ample protection mechanisms, such as a universal income; the challenge will be to find a purpose that motivates people to get up every morning.
Like the Greek patricians who owned slaves, our machines will allow us to devote our surplus time to philosophical reflection or leisure. Within this field, evasion of the environment will increase through the use of virtual reality and, unfortunately, the consumption of psychoactive substances. Social revolts led by those who do not adapt, perhaps with a return to a renewed Luddism, will be frequent. Education will also be affected, as school and university knowledge will become obsolete in a short time, making continuous acquisition of skills the key to survival in a constantly changing job market.
AI will have a particularly significant impact on high-paying jobs, known as white collar jobs. According to Goldman Sachs, up to 300 million of these jobs could be at risk by 2030, affecting the well-being of the middle class globally, which will have indisputable political and social consequences.
Despite the clear benefits of AI in productivity, economic growth, scientific advances and knowledge of nature, it is imperative to face the other reality that is approaching with all this and chart the course towards a new social contract as soon as possible. It is our responsibility, the responsibility of humans.
