Pacta sunt servanda; the agreement obliges. The recovery plan approved in 2021 and the addendum to it that the Spanish Government sent to the European Commission on Tuesday commit Spain and, therefore, the executive that appoints the future president of the Spanish Government after the general elections of 23 July, continue to be Pedro Sánchez or Alberto Núñez Feijóo. The next Council of Ministers will only be able to negotiate with Brussels specific changes to the milestones and commitments of the two documents sent to the European Commission to unlock the Next Generation funds. At this moment, Spain has received 37,000 million euros in transfers, but it aspires to enter another 123,000 million between subsidies and credits under favorable conditions. The margin is only a few months to renegotiate these partial modifications with Brussels, explain sources in the economic area of ​​the Spanish Government.
The future Minister of Economy, whatever color he may be, will not be able to transform the backbone of the recovery plan and the addendum. The reforms agreed or in the portfolio are unalterable in the central aspects if Spain does not want to risk stopping receiving aid, so that, in the event of a change in La Moncloa, only what in the current Executive could be renegotiated they call “tactical modifications”. In other words, slight changes in the milestones and objectives to direct the European funds towards, for example, a greater demand in certain business sectors or to adapt them to the macroeconomic situation.
The window of opportunity that opens is only one quarter, according to government sources. The calendar is fiendish. Brussels currently has two months to evaluate the addendum, which time can be extended to include possible modifications to the economic plans. “Between the Commission evaluating the addendum and December 31, there is room to change what the Spanish Government wants and agree with Brussels”, explains Paloma Baena, senior director of European issues Llorente and Cuenca (LLYC). At the end of the year the community authorities will close their debt ceiling and by then they should have completed negotiations with all EU countries.
The renegotiation period to modify the text that unlocks the European funds is therefore very short for Spain, as long as the future president obtains an express investiture. Sources involved in the recovery plan note that only the talks to establish the addendum have dragged on for six months, since the initial project was raised in Brussels in December.
The current Spanish Government does not expect major changes in the recovery plan if there is a change in La Moncloa. Neither does the expert Paola Baena, who adds that the documents agreed with Brussels “commit Spain as a country” and, therefore, must be complied with yes or no by the executive that can be settled after the appointment with the urns The economic area of ​​the Spanish Government recalled on Tuesday, after the Council of Ministers, that a repeal of some of the promised reforms “would bring negative consequences” for the country.
The first vice president, Nadia Calviño, affirmed yesterday from Brussels that the addendum to the recovery plan can indeed “be modified by the government that comes out of the polls”, with prior negotiation with the European Commission to extend the deadline of two months of evaluation. The Minister of Economic Affairs added that “the submission of the addendum is an exercise of great responsibility” because what the current Spanish Government intends is “to move forward, not stop, not go back in a process that is what Spain needs at this moment”.
