After an agonizing weekend in which the European Union watched with astonishment the rebellion unleashed in Russia by the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the foreign ministers of the Twenty-seven began yesterday to analyze the made at a meeting in Luxembourg. In view of the situation, they agreed that it is time to prepare for the scenarios and hypotheses that open up.
“Everyone started working on the possible hypotheses and scenarios of what could happen. It is clear that the view we now have of Russia is totally different. It is not only a threat because of its military capacity – it has already shown it with a war -, but also because of its internal political architecture”, argued yesterday the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell. “You have to deal with it, do an analysis, see the possible scenarios and have the ability to respond, but it’s not something that can be done in 24 hours”, he added.
For the foreign ministers, the insurrection of the Wagner Group is a sign that the internal unity of Russia is cracking, but also the power exercised by Vladimir Putin. Despite this, Borrell showed his concern for the consequences that “a nuclear power” like Russia could face when faced with political instability.
The Luxembourgish minister, Jean Asselborn, also warned of the unpredictable consequences that will arise from now on. “If the largest country in the world with the most nuclear weapons collapses and no one knows who is in charge in Russia, it is a great danger not only for Europe, but also for the world.”
“Undoubtedly, what remains in evidence is that what seemed like a monolithic internal Russian solidity has shown that it has gaps, and gaps that are very deep and that, perhaps, and we will know with the analysis that we will do together, it has more depth than simply the events that happened yesterday”, assured the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares.
But despite the surprise and shock, the inevitable question has also been raised: how can the new scenario in Moscow affect the Ukrainian counter-offensive. “No one knows what will happen, but, logically, if there are internal differences [in Russia], it favors the other side,” Borrell admitted.
However, the ministers agreed that recent events have served as a “catalyst”. “Everyone has said that it is necessary to continue helping Ukraine, and this has had a positive impact. We need to help Ukraine more than ever,” added Borrell. In fact, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmitró Kuleba, asked his counterparts by video conference that, in view of the weakness shown by Russia, aid to the country “must be redoubled”.
“The last few days teach us that we don’t have to think about changing the regime in Russia, we don’t have to plan it: the Russians are completely capable of doing it themselves,” the Lithuanian minister quipped. “Events like these can be repeated in the future. What we have to do is keep the focus on Ukraine”, he pointed out.
Precisely, the ministers gave the go-ahead to the expansion of the European Peace Fund of 3,500 million euros, which will thus have a total of 12,000 million euros. This fund has been used to help send arms to Ukraine (€3.6 billion has been contributed so far), although it has also been used to support other nations.
Hungary maintains the block to another shipment of 500 million euros that comes from this fund. Budapest maintains its veto for the inclusion of the Hungarian bank OTP – the country’s largest – on the blacklist of entities that collaborate with Russia.
Borrell pointed out that the EU also provides support in other ways, such as the training of soldiers: so far there have been 24,000 and they will reach 30,000 “long before the end of the year”.
