The European elections could turn into a full-scale Italian political poll. Both Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and opposition leader Elly Schlein are seriously considering running as candidates for their parties, Brothers of Italy and the Democratic Party (PD), to gauge their strength before the electorate. It would be the first time they would go head-to-head at the polls since Schlein was elected last year as general secretary of Italy’s Social Democrats, aiming to give a boost to an off-hours formation after a cycle of defeats and internal battles So far, they have only challenged each other head-to-head in Parliament.
“The voters know that you will not go to Europe later, but if they want to confirm their approval, it is also democracy,” Meloni defended during his year-end press conference. That’s when he directly challenged Schlein. “I think that an eventual candidacy of mine could perhaps also lead other leaders to make the same decision, I think of the opposition, and it could become a test of a very high level; therefore, a very interesting democratic test”, said the president.
For his part, Schlein has announced that he will decide after talking to his party, but there are several exponents in the center-left who suggest that it would be better not to do so. Despite this, he is evaluating launching himself to stop the “black wave” in Europe and also to combat the high abstention that is usually recorded in Italy in the community elections. In any case, neither Meloni nor Schlein want to become MEPs, but they do believe that their name on the ballot papers would boost their formations in an election that in Italy is likely to fade into the background.
In the practical field, there are few risks that they venture into if they decide to take this path. Polls say both parties would grow with their leader’s name at the forefront. “Both win, because Meloni chooses an opponent who is Schlein, who is less problematic for her than Giuseppe Conte”, explains Lorenzo Castellani, a political scientist at the Luiss University in Rome, referring to the leader of the 5 Star Movement (M5E). “He has no points in common with the PD electorate and Schlein is an adversary that he cannot win. Schlein also wins because she is recognized as the leader of the opposition, and a greater polarization can be good for her to win votes for the M5E”, he points out.
The only risk for Meloni is that too comfortable a victory in the European elections would mean that the other parties in the right-wing coalition, Matteo Salvini’s League and Forza Italia, led by Antonio Tajani since the death of Silvio Berlusconi, would suffer such bad results that they rocked the Executive with internal disputes. The barons of the League could hold Salvini to account, and also the future of Forza Italia would be hanging by a thread when it is still struggling with the consequences of the death of its founder.
According to the polls, a candidacy of Meloni would be equivalent to four percentage points, which could make him reach 32% of the votes right now. The consensus around Meloni is broad in the country, also due to the lack of a political alternative, and the latest polling average places support for Brothers of Italy at 28.7% of the electorate. The European elections in Italy have proven to be a prize for the most valued leader: in 2014, Matteo Renzi won the most important victory with 40% of the vote and in 2019 Salvini reached 34%.
In addition, for the premier it could also be an opportunity to measure support for her intention to reform the Constitution for the direct election of the prime minister, a controversial reform with which she wants to put an end to the chronic instability of the Italian executives. A poll by La Repubblica shows that 55% of Italians see it favorably.
These possible candidacies have generated a debate about whether it is advisable for the leaders to lend themselves to campaigning, since there are not a few who believe that it would be a hair-raising task. This is what former minister Emma Bonino thinks, for example, who believes that it is proof “that neither one nor the other cares about Europe, but only about national dynamics and conveniences”. “Not to mention the mockery for Italian voters, who vote for one person and then find another”, he denounced. Romano Prodi, ex-president of the European Commission, has gone further, describing it as “despising democracy”.
However, it is not something new in Italy. Matteo Renzi himself has already announced that he will present himself for his small center formation, Italia Viva. “Berlusconi always did it. Here the parties are all personal and even the voters of Brothers of Italy don’t vote with the party in mind, they vote for Meloni. It’s not frowned upon”, points out Castellani. At the moment, the duel could be consummated with a televised face-to-face between Meloni and Schlein that is already being prepared. It will be the first time that the two leaders debate in primetime. The game has already started to be played.
