Barcelona has exceeded 1.7 million inhabitants. According to the latest figure recorded by the Municipal Data Office, there are 1,700,895 registered citizens. This data corresponds to last September 1 and has not been updated, but seeing the growth trend of the first eight months of the year 2023, it is possible that today the figure is higher. Last January there were 1,660,435 inhabitants in Barcelona and the latest figure adds 2.4% more (40,460 people). This jump in population affects the number of councilors who make up the Consistory. From the first democratic elections in 1979 to 1991, the Catalan capital elected 43 councillors, but from the 1995 elections the City Council went to 41 eligible councilors due to the loss of population.
It is true that the next local elections are still three and a half years away and the number of inhabitants may vary. However, if we analyze what would have happened in the May elections with the current number of inhabitants, we find a different electoral result. With the help of our electoral analyst Carles Castro, we have applied the D’Hondt law taking into account the 1,700,895 inhabitants and the result is that Trias would keep its 11 councilors and remain the winner. The current mayor Jaume Collboni (PSC) would also keep his current 10 representatives. But former mayor Ada Colau (BComú) would win a seat and go from 9 to 10. ERC and PP would revalidate their 5 and 4 councilors, respectively, and Vox would get one more representative and go from 2 to 3.
If there were 43 councilors, the absolute majority would go from the current 21 to 22. Therefore, the sum of PSC and Trias for Barcelona, ??which today just reaches the majority, would be short and would need some more support. Instead, the tripartite option (PSC, BComú and ERC) would reach 25 councillors, one more than now. The investiture of Collboni would not have been in danger because the PSC, BComú and PP councilors would add one more vote to the 23 that pushed the current mayor to office.
This exercise is pure entertainment, but the parties are very attentive to the evolution of the population and where the political sympathies of the new inhabitants who increase the census are directed. Meanwhile, the municipal command bridge works with the priority of trying to close a government pact that relieves the PSC of its extreme minority. Last week’s political episode in the Spanish Congress between Junts and PSOE has cooled Collboni’s desire to agree with the post-convergents and, in turn, the latter have seen that an agreement with the socialists may not suit them now. The polls point to an increase in the PSC which dissuades Junts when they aspire to a comeback against ERC and Salvador Illa. In this context, Colau is waiting for his opportunity after making the decision to stay at the City Council.
