For the British conservatives, the result of the municipal elections has been like going to the doctor with clear symptoms of a very serious illness, and leaving with an almost terminal diagnosis; for Labor it has been like going there expecting to receive the final discharge, and leaving with the verdict that things have improved a lot but that there is still a lot of recovery to be done.
Rishi Sunak has been bloodied after his first electoral skirmish, and that the hostilities have only taken place in some regions of England (neither Scotland, nor Wales, nor London). It was a date marked as of maximum danger in his particular calendar, and in this sense he has fully met expectations. A national scale projection of the percentage of the vote suggests 35% for Labour, 26% for the Tories and 20% for the Liberal Democrats.
Aside from the conservative loss of around a thousand councilors and numerous municipal districts they controlled, the key is what it means for the general elections scheduled for the autumn of next year. On the eve of Tony Blair’s victory in 1997, Labor won the municipal elections with a sixteen point lead. And the year before Cameron’s victory in 2010, the Tories won by fifteen points.
This time Labour’s success, with the ultra-cautious Keir Starmer at the helm, has not been so resounding, and it is not entirely clear that the nine point difference will inevitably mean an absolute majority fifteen months from now. Maybe so, in the event that the SNP disintegrates in Scotland (it seems to be doing everything possible) and Labor steals twenty seats from them. Or maybe not, if it holds out more or less, the anti-conservative vote is fragmented and the Liberal Democrats repeat yesterday’s achievements (their best result since they left the alliance with Cameron scalded). In the latter scenario, a coalition would be necessary.
Sunak would have wanted to show that, after all, he has stopped the bleeding caused by the mismanagement of his predecessors Johnson and Truss, that things have improved a little, that the country presents an image of greater seriousness to the markets and the world , and that they will improve even more when inflation is controlled and the economy grows again. But he has had joy without joy. English voters have not given him the slightest respite.
The consequence is that the internal war between the Tories has been exacerbated, the broad bloc in favor of lowering taxes blames Sunak and claims that his strategy is going nowhere. Except for a crushing defeat next year. But on a possible return of Johnson, not a word. He remains in a coma.