The arctic ice could disappear one day in September this same decade. The fact would be specific, and it could take years to repeat itself. But by 2035, climate change may have progressed enough for the lack of ice to stop being an occasional phenomenon, and become the norm. This is what concludes the latest article published this Tuesday in the journal Nature Reviews Earth
The work, which considers that the usual lack of ice will occur for the first time in a month of September between 2035 and 2067, is not original research, but collects and synthesizes the conclusions of previous studies that have used different methodologies .
The frozen surface of the Arctic Ocean varies with the months of the year, and the minimum – getting smaller – is usually reached in September. In 1980 it was 7.5 million square kilometers. In 2023, of 4.5. The fall is not gradual, but the minimum extent depends on the conditions of each particular year.
“The first conditions [for an Arctic] without ice are possible under any emissions scenario,” and could occur this decade, explains Alexandra Jahn, a researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder and one of the authors of the review . What will happen is almost a certainty: the probability that we will avoid it is less than 10% even in the most optimistic scenario, with global warming below 1.5º C.
However, the path taken by global emissions from now on will determine the frequency and duration of this lack of ice. “Future emissions will lead to fundamentally different Arctic oceans, with a range that goes from 5 months of ice-free conditions every year to an occasional frequency,” the expert points out.
“There is still a lot of ice to save in the Arctic if we can limit the increase in global temperature to 2 degrees or less,” concludes Jahn. In this case, the models indicate that the lack of ice in 2100 will be common in September, and occasionally in August and October. In contrast, in an emissions-intensive scenario, with a temperature of 3.5º C above that of the pre-industrial era, the ice-free scenario would extend most of the year, from May to in January
Limiting the time in which the area is thawed is fundamental to limiting global warming itself. Ice reflects light – and therefore heat – from the sun, while the darkness of the ocean absorbs it, so the lack of ice will exacerbate climate change in a cycle. In addition, mammals such as polar bears and seals, which need an icy surface to survive, will see their way of life threatened.
The lack of ice will also facilitate human access to a territory we have set foot on relatively little, which opens the door to aggravating conflicts between nations in contact with the area. “The Arctic was traditionally an area that geostrategically, perhaps because of its inaccessibility, was of little relevance, and now it has moved to the forefront of international politics”, explains Elena Conde, researcher and professor of Public International Law at the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM).
This expert points out that the war in Ukraine, together with the thaw, is causing a profound change in the territory’s international relations. “Russia has made an absolute deployment of military forces on all the coasts of the Arctic, and has also used it as a test bed for the most advanced weapons,” he describes. All this in the face of a NATO that “has become more and more involved in Arctic issues”, with “military maneuvers that Russia can perceive as threatening”.
The geostrategic turn has also been marked by the US, which has gone from leaving its interests in the area in the hands of the Canadians to considering the Arctic a high priority, says Conde.
