The magnifying glass is on what Carles Puigdemont can decide from Waterloo or on the remote control decisions of Oriol Junqueras. Even also in the seats of Podemos embedded in the Sumar formation of Yolanda Díaz.
The electoral arithmetic has meant that Pedro Sánchez has to search all corners of Congress so that he does not miss any of the seats needed to be invested. All the potential investiture partners are more interested in renewing his mandate than in an election with results that could be adverse for many of them. Still photos do not exist in politics.
The focus for Sánchez to deploy his seductive and Machiavellian arts is on Carles Puigdemont, who holds the key to the investiture. It is also in the hands of Podemos, but for different reasons. The former president who fled and settled in Waterloo, MEP for Junts with a million votes in the European elections four years ago, is asking for amnesty and a referendum, while Podemos would be content with a couple of ministries.
Pedro Sánchez can overcome all obstacles and also promise amnesty. There are legal arguments in favor of and against this measure that Catalan independence supporters take for granted, but which politically has enormous difficulties. Not so much for the potential beneficiaries of the measure, but for the resistance within the PSOE and in areas of weight to the PSC who are willing to agree with Puigdemont, but not at any price.
It should not be forgotten that without the 19 seats that the party of Salvador Illa obtained on 23-J, Pedro Sánchez would not even be in a position to be a candidate for the investiture. The PSC had two hundred thousand more votes than Junts, ERC and the CUP. Illa has not yet spoken out in favor of amnesty. He is aware of what is at stake if the operation fails.
What happens in the coming weeks will not only depend on the future of Sánchez, who is a capable, resilient and lucky person. But beware of friendly fire, that of his own, who whispered that the amnesty without a formal commitment not to repeat the process would end up harming the PSOE and the PSC of Illa, which has saved Sánchez’s furniture . The problems come from Catalonia, and so do the solutions.