Sergei Zhirnov (Moscow, 1961), former KGB commander, refugee in France since 2001, believes that Yevgeny Prigozhin will emerge victorious from the failed insurrection and that, if he stands in the presidential elections against Vladimir Putin, he will defeat him. That is why it is in serious danger of being eliminated. Author of several books about his youth as a Soviet espionage agent and, last year, of L’engrenage, about the war in Ukraine, Jirnov often intervenes as an analyst in various French media. In an interview with La Vanguardia, the Russian exile warns that today the danger of implosion of the Russian State is “enormous” due to the precedent of an unpunished riot, which can inspire other rebellions, due to the low motivation of the troops, due to the contradictory behavior of the Kremlin and the centrifugal temptation of autonomous republics within the Russian Federation. Jirnov states that Putin himself set in motion “the mechanism of Russia’s dislocation” when he recognized the Ukrainian separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk.
The former KGB officer met Putin in 1980, when he was 19, and the later president interrogated him for two hours. Years later they met at the Andrópov Institute, the university of spies. Jirnov is convinced that the head of the Kremlin is a cowardly and weak man who tries to project the opposite.
Who has won this match, Putin or Prigozhin?
There is one loser and two winners. The loser is Putin, in full measure. Above all, Putin personally, Putin as president and as a representative of the state machinery, because the Russian state, Russia, has lost. And there are two winners. The first is Prigozhin, he and his society, Wagner. The second is (Aleksandr) Lukashenko, the president of Belarus.
How should we interpret the role played by Lukashenko?
very easy Lukashenko is a dictator who fears for his position even more than Putin does for his, because in 2020 he lost the election, but stayed in power, therefore he is illegitimate in his country, which is much smaller and has a lot less strength to defend yourself. If Putin is overthrown in Russia, the second to come, a week later, will be Lukashenko. He did not want there to be an example of the overthrow of official power in a former Soviet republic. So he has done everything possible to keep Putin in power, to help him in a situation that was fatal for Putin.
What is the political future that you see for Prigozhin?
Prigozhin is a populist. To summarize, I’d say he’s a Russian Trump, a mouthpiece who uses very flowery, direct language that tells the truth. When he criticizes something about Russia, most of the time he is right. Don’t lie about reality. But what he proposes is almost always wrong. But because he tells the truth, he is highly regarded by the Russians. Fishing in the same electorate as Putin. It is the same people who vote for Putin who could vote for Prigozhin. And the people who are very right-wing, extreme right-wing, the Russian nationalists who criticize Putin today, are happy with Prigozhin. He has a better chance than Putin to win the election. If elections are held next year and Prigojin runs against Putin, Prigojin will win.
Is there, therefore, a risk that it will be eliminated?
Yes, there is a risk that he will be removed, especially now, because he has tried to overthrow Putin. Not only did he try, he had the means to do it. Putin has been through a lot of fear and understood that Prigozhin was a person who could replace him and that, moreover, he was applauded by many Russians. He is today his most dangerous enemy. Therefore, Putin will do everything he can to make Prigozhin disappear before March next year.
But for the West, Prigozhin as president of Russia would be even worse than Putin, right?
We do not know. That’s why I compared him to Trump. When he was elected in 2016, it was said that it was the end, that the United States would be led by an uncontrollable person, a populist, etc. Actually everything went well. America didn’t disappear, it didn’t collapse. Even if Prigozhin comes to power, he will quickly learn that he will not be able to do what he wants.
And what will be the consequences for the war in Ukraine of this surreal episode that has been experienced?
It can help Ukraine because, first of all, the morale of the Russian troops will be greatly weakened. They were no longer very motivated, but now, when they have seen that Prigozhin has been able to leave the front and even lead a rebellion for which he has not been punished, many Russians are beginning to wonder why we can’t the same. The Russians will lose motivation and this will play in favor of Ukraine. Secondly, for Putin it is a state-wide catastrophe. As I told you, Putin has personally lost and the Russian state has lost. When there is a riot that is not punished, it is deadly for the State. If we remember the coup against Gorbachev, which failed, the Soviet Union disappeared four months later.
Do you see danger of implosion of the Russian state?
Yes, yes, there is a huge danger. I wrote about it in my book published last year, L’engrenage. I said that Putin is responsible. He himself opened Pandora’s box, because it was he who, recognizing the republics of Luhansk and Donetsk (Russian-speaking territories in Ukraine), opened the possibility for all the autonomous republics inside Russia to do the same. It was he who launched the Russian dislocation mechanism.
Could Putin be tempted to make a dash forward to forget what happened?
Absolutely, it is. It fits Putin’s character. Indeed, he will try to do something more spectacular.
For example?
I could go as far as nuclear to make you forget all this.
Were you surprised by what happened?
I was not surprised by the riot. I was surprised by Putin’s reaction, for two reasons. First he immediately declared Prigozhin as an enemy, as a criminal. And this is not typical of Putin’s character because he does not like to make clear decisions. Putin is a coward, a weakling. He pretends to be very strong, but in reality he is very weak. The problem is that this time he behaved like a fort in the morning and in the afternoon he changed his position. This is even more strange in Putin because he does not admit his mistakes and above all he never backs down. This surprised me. All other things, no.
