Europe dreams of climate neutrality. Its scientists are already imagining an EU-27 with a balance of zero emissions by half a century. The European Scientific Advisory Council on Climate Change, the EU’s advisory body, has recommended that the EU reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% to 95% by 2040, compared to 1990. Will it be possible?
This advisory body has drawn up a report in which it marks the path that European institutions must follow until the year 2040 to adjust to the Paris Agreement against climate change. The document places the trajectories with gas cuts that avoid global warming above 1.5°C. For this reason, they have made an assessment of the latest scenarios available to achieve climate neutrality in the EU by 2050.
The result is that the EU has to work hard, and very hard, if it wants to achieve net emissions reductions of 90-95% by 2040, in relation to 1990 levels. For the period 2030-2050 it sets a total budget of gases that can be emitted (of 11-14 Gt CO2equivalent) to be in agreement with the climate goals.
Will it be achieved? “The transition requires big and fast changes in policies, actions and governance. But if the EU wants to fulfill its commitments for 2050, it must take on these goals”, answers Laura Díaz Anadón, vice-president of the Scientific Advisory Council on Climate Change and professor of climate change policies at the University of Cambridge.
Scientists point to a plan starring a very significant short-term deployment of wind and solar power, an intense process of electrification in energy use (now dominated by fossil fuels) and a push for alternatives to fuels fossils, with a relevant role for green hydrogen. “We must decarbonize the electricity sector, and electricity generation must be predominantly renewable, especially wind, solar and hydraulic. And this means that the combination of these three sources must contribute between 70% and 90% in 2040”, says Díaz Anadón.
Decarbonisation of the EU’s electricity sector involves the gradual elimination of coal-fired electricity generation by 2030 and gas-fired electricity generation by 2040 (unless the plants have systems for capture and CO2 storage). “The EU has agreed to reduce emissions by more than half in 40 years (between 2030 and 1990); and if we want to reach net zero, we must reduce the other half in 20 years. This illustrates the speed of the necessary changes”, emphasizes Laura Díaz Anadón.
Achieving the target requires a decrease in energy consumption of between 20% and 40% by 2040, although the cuts are largest for the transport sector (30-60%), followed by industry (15-45%) and residential and tertiary sectors (15-35%). “However, the proportion of electricity in the energy demand would be double the current one”, explains the Cambridge professor.
This whole strategy ensures the EU’s energy independence by reducing fossil fuel imports and, in some cases, virtually eliminating them by 2050. Primary fossil energy imports would decrease by 65% ??to 93% by 2040 compared to to 2019 levels. Fossil gas imports would be largely eliminated by 2040. And fossil oil imports would fall 60-80% from 2019 data.
Not only does it increase energy security, it also helps protect health and well-being with better air quality.
The report reserves a relevant role for systems for capturing and removing CO2 from the atmosphere, through sewers (land, forests) or technological options. In this second modality appears the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (Beccs, by its acronym in English), an option that allows, for example, to capture CO2 through tree plantations (burning the its wood to produce energy, capture the carbon when it comes out the chimney and bury it underground).
All scenarios envisage rapid deployment and expansion of CO2 capture. But the report sees fit to assess the uncertainties and their degree of sustainability. It also includes forecasts to reduce gas emissions in another sector by 20% to 60%, such as the reduction of nitrogen fertilizers or methane in landfills and if the use of fossil fuels is reduced.
