When Russian dissident Aleksei Navalni was found dead in a penal colony in the Arctic, all the heavyweights of Italian politics rushed to condemn Vladimir Putin. Minus one. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, one of the three parties in the Italian right-wing coalition, again generated controversy for his pro-Russian comments.
“It is difficult for me to know what is happening in Italy, how can I judge what is happening on the other side of the world?”, he declared on the radio. “I understand the position of Navalni’s wife, clarity is needed. But it is done by the doctors, the judges, not us”, he added.
The words of the ultra-right caused a lot of criticism in the country. During the tribute to the Russian opposition in front of the Rome City Hall, the League delegation was booed because of the League’s well-known sympathy for the Putin regime, with whose party it signed a cooperation agreement on 2017. This contrasts greatly with the determined support for Ukraine by the Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who on Saturday wanted to open the Italian presidency of the G-7 from Kyiv in order to side with Volodymyr Zelenski two years after the Russian invasion .
Salvini’s position on Navalni’s death is not the only factor that has put the Italian Government under tension. For some time now, the leader of the League has radicalized his messages against immigrants, crime or Italy’s relations with Brussels. When farmers from all over Europe protested in front of the headquarters of the Eurochamber, he did not hesitate to attack the “pseudo-green” policies of the EU and take pictures next to concertinas to denounce the treatment of the protesters, despite the fact that the agricultural sector has carried out a challenge against the Executive that he himself represents. With a very discreet left-wing opposition, the league player has become a cross for Meloni.
Salvini is nervous because if five years ago he swept the European elections with 34% of the vote, now polls give him barely 8% of voting intention, while support for Brothers of Italy is 28 %. In other words, a third of the League’s delegation to the Eurochamber could have to pack their bags. In view of this panorama, she wants to differentiate herself from the prime minister – who has shown her more moderate side since she assumed power – trying to scratch the most ultra-right vote, but it is not working for her. It continues to lose points in the polls and in the recent regional elections in Sardinia the League barely got 3.7% of the ballots.
“Salvini’s problem is that he is running the same 2019 election campaign, anti-European and pro-Putin, without having understood that the world after 2020 has completely changed and the demands of the population are different,” explains Demoscopic analyst Antonio Noto . “In 2019, the anti-European logic was valid. Now the Italians, after the pandemic and in the middle of the war in Ukraine, feel safer under the European umbrella and are against Russia, so Meloni gives them more peace of mind”, he adds.
Salvini’s latest outing has been to reaffirm his support for the controversial general Roberto Vannaci, suspended for eleven months from his position in the army for the publication of a self-published book in which he attacked immigrants, ecologists, feminists or homosexuals. The deputy prime minister, who values ??appointing him head of the list in the community elections, came out again to defend him this week after the punishment was made public: “One investigation a day, ridiculous, how scared is the general? Long live freedom of thought and expression, long live the armed forces and the police,” he said.
According to Marco Valbruzzi, Professor of Political Sciences at the Frederic II University of Naples, this behavior responds to the fact that Salvini does not know how to campaign in any other way. “He only knows how to resort to this language halfway between the Government and the opposition. Meloni has been able to moderate himself, but he is not able to. The Europeans will be a true trial by fire because if the League falls below the threshold of 10% of the votes or is overtaken by Forza Italia, then its leadership in the party could be questioned”, points out the political scientist.
There are already those who are starting to do it. Gianantonio Da Re, one of the MEPs of the League, has warned that if the formation does not manage to exceed 10% of the votes, Salvini will have to resign. “A secretary answers in the green and in the mature”, he assured. In the ranks of the party, there is dissatisfaction with the general’s possible candidacy, especially in the big strongholds in the north of the country, alerted by the possible flight of their more traditional voters to Brothers of Italy or Forza Italia.
There is also the name that Salvini fears most of all: that of Luca Zaia, the powerful governor of the Veneto region, who could challenge him for the party leadership. Zaia, with a reputation as a good manager, prefers to stay at home, but his term ends next year, and under current Italian rules he cannot run for a third re-election. For this reason, among other reasons, Salvini is pressuring Meloni to modify from two to three the limit of consecutive mandates for regional presidents or mayors. The campaign for the Europeans has technically not started, but Salvini has been thinking about everything for some time now.
