Alexandre Melnik (Moscow, 1958), ex-Soviet and then Russian diplomat in the era of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, is a professor of Geopolitics at the prestigious ICN Business School, a French grande école. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Melnik has been a regular commentator in the French media and always insists on “the moral wreck” of the Russian nation to which Putin has brought him. The political scientist is convinced that a trial, in the style of Nuremberg (1945-1946), will be necessary for Russia to recognize guilt, as Germany did after Nazism. Melnik analyzed for La Vanguardia the death in prison of the oppositionist Aleksei Navalni and its repercussions.
Do you think Navalny was, in fact, killed?
Yes, we must be very clear, this is a political assassination. It was liquidated by the Kremlin. Putin bears full responsibility for the crime. His signature is visible. We do not know the medical circumstances and we will never know, of that you can be sure. But the essential thing, I repeat, is that it is a political assassination by direct order of Vladimir Putin. And it’s not the first time it’s happened, as you know. This murder is added to the long list of murders, such as that of journalist Anna Politkóvskaia, in 2005, by the way, on Putin’s birthday, and so many others.
Has Russia returned to the worst-case scenario of the Stalin years?
Yes, it is the return to the Soviet past, but worse, even more cruel. I would say that Putin and Stalin share the same combat.
What is the difference between the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, and that of Navalny?
Prigozhin was part of Putin’s clan. At the beginning he was almost the brain, the ideologue. Then he gained too much importance for Putin and began to shadow him, as well as making untimely statements, obviously. In his case, it was a political execution, while that of Navalny, who was a true opponent, with a different vision of Russia, was a true assassination in the spirit of the 1930s, of the Stalin era.
Why did he do it? Maybe the consequences will be negative for him?
I don’t think when a murderer does that reasoning. I have been saying for some time that Putin is on a deadly escalation. He’s an unstoppable serial killer. It can only be stopped by force. It is almost paranoia, because Navalny was already far away, he presented no danger to Putin’s power from a rational point of view. It is my opinion, it is the behavior of an almost mentally ill person, of a man who is increasingly losing his sense of reality.
With this act, is he trying to convey fear to the opposition or to ordinary citizens?
He wants to install fear in society as a whole, but he himself is afraid. It’s like a boomerang of fear. Putin’s strategy is based on two pillars. One is the fear, also that of ordinary people, who are beginning to be afraid, as in the Soviet era, that someone will knock on the door in the middle of the night and take them to the gulag. The other pillar is the lie, the lie of propaganda.
It has been expected for some time that there will be a reaction from the Russian population, but the reaction is not coming. Because?
Because it is a population paralyzed by fear, fear of losing life and reprisals, exactly like in the Stalinist era, and because it is a society lobotomized by lies. Always those two pillars: fear and lies.
And therefore?
We must not lose hope because there is a generational difference. When I say that the population is afraid, it is mostly people who watch television, vulnerable to propaganda, but there are more and more young people who do not watch television, who follow social networks. The click, as I say, knows no borders. My hope is based on the awakening of young people who understand that Putin is stealing their future, because they cannot travel or communicate with the rest of the world. They do not understand why and in the name of what Putin hijacks their future.
Will this death have consequences for the development of the war in Ukraine?
I think that the assassination is more in the context of the presidential election campaign. Putin fears the campaign will be disrupted. He wants to get at least 80% of the vote, that there is no opposition. That is why he rejected Borís Nadejdin, who proposed to end the war, and now the death of Navalni. Later, when his hands are even freer, he will say that he has the mandate of the people. Then he will be even more furious. It will take advantage of the momentum and the favorable moment for Russia on the front to gain more advantage, first in the Donbass and also to protect Crimea, because the Ukrainians today make Crimea their priority objective. After the election I see an acceleration of Russian military operations, especially since the West is slow to give more aid and the situation in the United States is extremely disturbing because of the possible arrival of Trump in power, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainians.
At Macron and Zelenskiy’s recent press conference in Paris, the French president was tougher than ever on Russia. Does it mean that the West will react?
Yes, but it’s very late. Remember when Macron said that Russia should not be humiliated. Ukraine did not like this at all. Today he is trying to position himself as the leader of Europe, but I do not know if he will succeed, if he has the means, because the Germans are economically much stronger than the French. I think that, in fact, we need to move towards European unity, because no country can resist the Russian war machine, and, even so, it will not be enough without the support of the United States.