In 2019 the PSPV regained hegemony in the Valencian Community. Until the regional and general elections that were held in April 2019, the Socialists accumulated 25 calls -among general, European, regional and municipal- lagging behind the PP. A surprise that was possible thanks to the fact that the Socialists received significant electoral support from other niche voters.
According to the CIS post-electoral study, 13.6% of Esquerra Unida voters and 11.7% of Podem voters in the regional elections four years earlier, opted to support Ximo Puig’s candidacy. On the other side of the board, 5.7% of Ciudadanos voters voted with the fist and the rose. The oranges, in turn, achieved a good result taking advantage of the fall of the PP.
In this analysis of this post-electoral study by the Center for Sociological Research, which helps to understand the result that the Botà nic consolidated four more years, it stands out that the greatest doubt among those who did not know which party to choose was between the PSPV and Ciudadanos.
It seems evident that in order to achieve that electoral majority that allows the formation of a government, it is necessary to convince former voters of other formations. And in this strategy they have been working for years in the PSPV, promoting the figure of the president of the Generalitat, Ximo Puig, whom they consider their best electoral asset, even above the brand; heavily polluted in case the wind and tidal waves that occur in Madrid favor Pedro Sánchez and the coalition government that make up PSOE and Unidas Podemos or not.
Already at the PSPV congress the motto left no room for doubt: “For the majority.” Now, they have opted for a presidential campaign in which Puig is the only protagonist: “El president” is the slogan for 28M.
The data that the Socialists are considering are those that advise betting everything on the figure of the head of the Consell. According to all the surveys, Ximo Puig is the best-known regional leader with the best rating in the Valencian Community as a whole. The socialist president has that transversal profile that makes him able to fish for votes beyond the mark.
The internal studies of the PSPV point out that the socialist president achieves a general knowledge of more than 90%, a long way from his competitors. Although for a time he did have the shadow of Mónica Oltra, the resignation of the leader of CompromÃs has placed him as the most valued Valencian politician.
The data that they have in the socialist headquarters is that Ximo Puig obtains his best evaluation in the age groups of 65 and over and in that of 35 to 49 years, as well as among women.
As this newspaper explained, the population over 65 years of age exceeds one million in the Valencian Community and they are key in an electoral census of 3.6 million voters. They are the age group with the greatest weight and are characterized by being faithful to the vote, participating a lot in the elections and having their options clear before the electoral campaign begins. According to CIS post-election data, the vote for the Socialist Party that in the 2019 regional elections would be 44.1% in this age group.
The recent barometer of the Generalitat Valenciana (5,010 interviews) pointed out that 51.4% of those surveyed believed that the political situation “will remain” in the Valencian Community. The PSPV’s own survey released this week (very optimistic for the interests of the fist and the rose formation) indicated that 34.8% value the management carried out in the last four years as “good” or “very good”. by the Government of the Generalitat Valenciana compared to 27.9% who considered it “bad” or “very bad”.
The survey commissioned by Podem to the company 40dB also established this preference for reissuing the Botà nic. According to the data provided by the purples, 35.1% were in favor of a third progressive pact in the Generalitat, while 24.1% opted for a PP and Vox coalition government.
It is not surprising that in this context, the campaign of the Socialists is directed to defend the management of these eight years, confronting it with the memories of the last years of the PP. Just as Isabel DÃaz Ayuso from Madrid polarized the campaign of the autonomous communities with her “communism or freedom”, Puig has already opted for a forceful dilemma: “Gürtel or Volkswagen”, playing with the two German words that have marked the legislatures in the Community Valencian.
territorial vote
In the last regional elections, the PSPV achieved 24.4% of the votes and far from what it may seem, given the institutional power that the PP holds in the province of Alicante, the worst result was in Valencia. A circumstance that is explained by the good result of CompromÃs in this constituency, which is also the largest and the one with the most deputies (40 are at stake).
It is not surprising that, for this reason, the Socialists have put their best asset in the province. This time, Puig will have the support of the municipal lists and the pull of its mayors. The PSPV won the local elections with 31% of the votes, ahead of the PP by 115,000 votes. In counties such as l’Horta Nord and l’Horta Sud (the two most populous in the constituency, apart from the cap i casal), the Socialists obtained 45% and 36% support in the municipalities, respectively.
The red belt took on color again and strengthened the result of a party that, it cannot be ignored, is nourished above all by unskilled workers and skilled workers, when the CIS traces the stratification by the socioeconomic condition of the person interviewed.
In this battle, as we have been explaining these days, the city of Valencia will be key, where CompromÃs resists and the Socialists aspire to grow to attempt the assault on the Mayor’s Office and block the access of the PP to the command rod, a sine qua non condition for that the popular can fight for the Generalitat Valenciana.
