Awaiting the result of 23-J, the municipal elections have left a map that reflects the increase in power of the PSC and the institutional decline of independence, more accentuated in Junts than in ERC. This fall of Carles Puigdemont’s party is not only explained by the electoral results, but also by the policy of pacts. His strategy begins to suffocate the possibilities of governing, of being useful and relevant in politics. What is happening that Junts has decided to isolate themselves like this?
Since the congress a year ago that led Laura Borràs and Jordi Turull, the party has lost half of the Government of the Generalitat (six ministries, including the vice-presidency and Economy), the presence in the governments of the deputations of Lleida, Tarragona and, probably, that of Barcelona, ??in addition to about forty mayors. The balance sheet would have been made up if Xavier Trias had been mayor of Barcelona. It has not been possible because of the ambition of the PSC (which has even sought the PP), but also because of the impossibility of Junts to agree without pressure from Puigdemont.
“Waterloo continues to set the standard”, they assure the party. After 28-M, the Junts agreed with the socialists in Roses or the Bisbal d’Empordà without giving time for the management to impose its criteria. From there, things went downhill. In the province of Lleida, Junts overtook ERC and practically had an agreement with the PSC to preside over the deputation, which was vetoed by the leadership, allowing ERC to maintain the presidency with socialist support. Something similar happened in Tarragona. Together, they were not the first force and had already paired with the PSC the votes to wrest the presidency of the Provincial Council from the Republicans, but the order of the management thwarted the plan.
In the Provincial Council of Barcelona, ??Salvador Illa’s priority is to repeat the presidency with the support of Junts, but it is almost impossible for this to happen. The PSC has alternatives to keep the post, but Junts would lose a new share of power. The decision will be justified by the ugly socialist made in Trias, but the truth is that the leadership of the party made clear for weeks its veto on pacts with the socialists.
All this has created discomfort in Junts. The internal debate is usually established between several families, but broadly speaking the “Octoberists” and the pragmatists are distinguished. The former use “October 1”, the date of the unilateral referendum, as the axis of the story. So much so, that they have even created the verb “October” to define their political action against “the repressors”, which include the PSC. This thesis, inevitably, leads to being put in the hands of ERC. And the Republicans sometimes extend their hand and, at other times, hide it, depending on the situation or their interests. The rest of the party is clamoring to overcome a scenario of almost six years ago and which is cornering Junts, since the alternative, the pro-independence unity, is cracking every day.
The case about Puigdemont’s immunity is at a key moment. European justice will rule on the matter on July 5 and the former president’s story in Europe is based on presenting himself as a victim of repressive persecution by the Spanish State. Endorsing pacts with the party that governs Spain goes badly with their line of argument.
The non-“Octobrist” sector hoped that, with Trias as mayor, a pragmatic path would be opened. But Puigdemont already pointed out Míriam Nogueras as his favorite to cut off any attempt to replace her as a candidate for the generals. Waterloo thus ensures that in Madrid it will not be bridged again as happened with the motion of censure against Rajoy. What would happen if Pedro Sánchez depended on Junts to govern? Puigdemont will impose conditions, which could go through a request for amnesty (the self-determination referendum is considered more difficult to achieve). Their demands would seek to make clear a political victory that would highlight ERC. If this strategy led Junts to allow a PP government with the support of Vox, the consequences for the party are difficult to predict.
