Sunday’s elections take on the character of a second assault in the Basque Country after the municipal and regional elections of May 28. Logically, the main focus of attention for the Basques has to do with what is happening today in Spain as a whole, which will mark the socio-political context of the coming years. In Basque terms, however, a new battle will be fought between the PNB and EH Bildu, who will fight to win votes and seats in the Basque territory, although without losing sight of a PSOE that could achieve, according to the polls, its best result in the Basque Country in general elections since 2008.
This second assault of the struggle waged by Basque nationalists and pro-independence comes after the Abertzale coalition put the hegemony of the PNB in ??danger in May. The appointment is also presented as the forerunner of a third assault that will take place next spring, with the elections to the Basque Parliament that the lehendakari will probably coincide with the European elections on June 9. There is a lot of interest to know the moment in which this fight is, to what extent the PNB is touched and to what extent EH Bildu can still continue to grow or has already touched its electoral ceiling.
Considering the elections in May, it can be concluded that the PNB is noticing wear and tear. In four years, it has gone from its electoral ceiling in municipal elections, with more than 408,000 votes, to a figure very close to its minimum in local elections, with 86,000 fewer supports. The 23-J does not come, in this sense, at the best moment for the Jeltzales, who face an inauspicious appointment, as are some generals, without having had time to reflect on their first electoral stumble in a long time. The PNB, in any case, has been able to lead a very successful campaign giving full prominence to the solvency of its man in Madrid, Aitor Esteban.
The two big doubts are whether the Jeltzales will manage to mobilize their electorate, after recognizing that in May they suffered an abstention from punishment, and, secondly, knowing to what extent the dual vote can hurt them. In the 2015-2016 electoral cycle, the Basque dual vote, a term used to explain how voters vote differently depending on the election, brought the PNB and EH Bildu to their electoral minimum, in favor of state-level parties. This trend was reduced dramatically in the 2019-2020 cycle, and it remains to be seen what happens today.
An analysis prepared by the company Silván
The Abertzale coalition, on the other hand, is encouraged by its good results in May and is looking for a second run at the PNB. Their electoral campaign has been more choral than that of the Jeltzales, although they have opted to give prominence to Oskar Matute. Silvan’s analysis
A PP-Vox coalition government would leave the representatives of the PNB and EH Bildu out of the game in Madrid, while it could strain coexistence in the Basque Country and lead to a radicalization of attitudes around the national question. On the contrary, the eventual continuity of a coalition executive, in this case PSOE-Sumar, would once again guarantee the prominence of the two main Basque forces in Madrid.
As a third option, it is necessary to see what would happen if the PP achieved an exceptional result and needed the support of the Jeltzales. This scenario could allow the PNB to appear as the party that prevented the arrival of the far right in the Spanish Government. And it is not little.
