Participation in the Galician elections is around the historical maximum, that of 2009. The figure from five in the afternoon, 49.17%, is very similar to the 49.34% from fifteen years ago, just when Alberto’s era began. Núñez Feijóo, who, despite being in Madrid since 2022, continues to exercise remote control through his successor as president of the Xunta, Alfonso Rueda. This return to the magical year of the leader of the Spanish popular group seems to be a good omen for him. However, the territorial evolution is not so positive, since there is growth in Atlantic Galicia, which is more progressive; and a decrease in the east, the most conservative, especially in the province of Ourense.
After the morning mirage, of the 12 o’clock data, the 5 o’clock data in the afternoon has already placed the panorama in the terms that were envisioned if the comparison, instead of making it with the most recent call, that of 2020, is made with the most comparable in the calendar, that of 2009. The drop of 2.3 points observed at midday in relation to four years ago became a rise of one point in relation to 15 years ago. By mid-afternoon, the rise of 6, 2 points that the 2020-2024 balance shows becomes a minimum difference of just two tenths downwards in the 2009-2024 calculation.
On a day like the one that Feijóo achieved his fourth absolute majority, in the middle of the pandemic, in Galicia it gets dark around ten-thirty at night, in those eternal days, due to a time zone so mismatched with its geographical position, that it changes only with cross the last bridges over the Miño. On the other hand, today the sky will darken around 7:30 p.m., when there will still be half an hour left to go to vote. In 2020, 21% of Galicians who went to the polls did so in the morning, before going to the beach, the village, the mountains or to one of the hundreds of gastronomic festivals. The data is quite similar to that of the only other elections held in an equivalent period, those of June 19, 2005, those of Fraga’s fall. So it was 20%. On the other hand, on March 1, 2009, almost the same time of year as today, there was much less rush to go through the polling stations, an option chosen by 17.5% of those who exercised their right to active suffrage. .
In everything that concerns abstention in Galicia, confusion has always reigned, the result of more than a century of mass exodus abroad and government nonsense. At the beginning of the transition the censuses were very outdated. Now those inside Galicia seem to be quite reasonable. However, both the Ministry of the Interior and the 90%, which causes a drop of about ten points in the data for Galicia as a whole. In order to be able to orient yourself, the reference must always be the percentage of turnout at the polls in Galician territory. With this premise, the current record is 70.5% in 2009, followed by 68.1% in 2005. The normal level is around 64% in 2016 and 2012, while during the pandemic there was not a slight decrease either. strong, up to 59%.
The data from five in the afternoon confirms the trend towards 2009, although perhaps the final figure is a little lower. There is in any case a territorial change, in favor of Atlantic Galicia, that of the constituencies of A Coruña and Pontevedra, two of the fifteen provinces in which the general alliance that supports the Sánchez Government surpassed the PP entente and Vox. In A Coruña an increase of 1.35 points was recorded at 5 o’clock compared to 2009, while in Pontevedra stability reigned, with only 0.16% less. In Lugo there was a somewhat greater drop, of 0.75 points, while in Ourense the drop was considerable, of 4.66.
This drop could be explained by a deactivation of the networks of the popular dynasty of the Baltar family, which reigned in the deputation between 1990 and 2023, when it was deposed by Alfonso Rueda.
This is good news, in principle, for Democracia Ourensana, the party of the capital’s bizarre mayor Gonzalo Pérez Jácome, since it reduces the threshold of around 6% in ballots that it has to overcome to enter.
The result of 2009, with the record participation, refutes the thesis that high mobilization generally harms the PP. However, it does not affect the theory that to conquer the Xunta the progressives need a significant mobilization. The key is how it is distributed by territories and segments of the electorate. The electoral excitement has returned to Galicia.