Tradition says and statistics confirm that January is always a bad month for the labor market. The end of the Christmas campaign and the termination of contracts concentrated on these dates, in an economy as seasonal as the Spanish one, takes its toll. Also this year.
The question is no longer so much the fact of verifying the negative data, which are guaranteed, but also assessing the level of damage caused. In January 2024, the impact is strong, but within normality. The month ended with the loss of 231,250 jobs and an increase in unemployment by 60,404 people.
In terms of membership, the loss of more than 231,000 jobs in January is higher than last year, which was 215,000, and also higher than in previous years. You have to go back to 2013 to find a higher drop in memberships in January, with the exception of 2020, when 244,000 were lost.
It is true, however, that, thanks to the good trajectory of employment over the last year, the 20.6 million affiliates with which the month closes is the highest figure in the first month of the year the entire historical series. And more than half a million members have been added since January of last year, which represents a year-on-year growth of 2.6%.
When the detail is examined, it appears that the loss of jobs is widespread. It happens in all sectors, without exception, but the ones that stand out are hospitality and commerce, with a drop of 45,000 jobs in each sector. They are the ones most affected by the calendar effect.
From the Social Security, they state that, when assessing the loss of 231,000 jobs, it must be taken into account that the total number of members is growing, so the drop in membership is also higher in numbers absolute They point out that a 1.1% reduction in employment in January is similar or lower than other Januarys of previous years. The conclusion is that “we see no signs of slowing down”, in the rate of job creation, according to the Secretary of State for Social Security, Borja Suárez. In addition, they add as a complementary argument that in seasonally adjusted terms, that is to say, removing the calendar and season effect, the affiliation has 38,357 more workers.
Funcas also agree with this interpretation, since they consider that this increase in affiliates in seasonally adjusted terms is very similar to that of the previous month and slightly higher than that of previous months. So this think tank concludes that membership has maintained the rate of growth at the beginning of the year and that the same trends observed during the second half of 2023 are maintained.
On the other hand, in January the percentage of affiliates with indefinite employment stands at 87%, its historical maximum and which is 17 points above what it was before the labor reform. In this way, the temporary rate has been reduced to a minimum of 13%. In the case of minors, the reduction in temporary employment is more intense, going from 53% before the reform to the current 20%.
In terms of unemployment, January closed with 60,404 more unemployed, slightly less than last month and in line with the figures of the pre-pandemic period. The total number of registered unemployed is 2.7 million, which is the lowest level for a month of January in the last 16 years. By sector, 97% of the increase in unemployment is concentrated in services, while the increase is small in agriculture and industry, and in construction there is a small reduction in unemployment.
For the Secretary of State for Employment, Joaquín Pérez Rey, “it has been a good January within the negative characteristics for employment that this month always has”.
In the case of Catalonia, it does not escape the general trend, and also sees how unemployment is growing and jobs are being lost. It was the fourth autonomous region where unemployment rose the most, 3,690 more unemployed, after Andalusia (20,077), Madrid (9,646) and Valencia (4,363). Regarding membership, Catalonia lost 34,912 contributors in the first month, which has left the total number of employed at 3,674,897. Only Andalusia exceeded the loss in Catalonia, but if the percentage evolution is taken into account, with a fall of 0.94% over the previous month, Catalonia is one of those that suffered the least fall.
With regard to the contracts signed in January, there are a total of 1.1 million, of which 500,000 are of an indefinite nature, which represents 43% of the total.
