Although negotiations for a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, with the United States as a sponsor, have been going on for several months, this possibility had not received as much impetus, at least in rhetoric, as the one that get a few days ago in New York.
The UN General Assembly served as a springboard, but the screen of the United States Fox News channel was the stage chosen by the Saudi Crown Prince, Muhammad bin Salman, to verbalize for the first time that “every day we are more near” (of a deal).
This “close” did not only fill Benjamin Netanyahu with optimism, but, in front of an almost empty auditorium, but with the presence of a Saudi diplomat – a change from the traditional absence of Arabs in the speeches of Israeli leaders – , dared to say that both are “on the cusp of a spectacular breakthrough”.
His foreign minister, Eli Cohen, went further and set the beginning of 2024 as the final details phase, in addition to predicting that “six or seven Muslim nations” will follow in the footsteps of the Saudis. However, one must ask what the bases are for thinking about an agreement between the Jewish State and the main player in the Islamic world, and what obstacles it might face.
The great support is the desire of the three involved. The United States has admitted that it has a “genuine national security interest” in getting its two allies in the Middle East to recognize each other.
This would be a huge achievement for the Joe Biden Administration, as part of “a broader strategy to overcome [the influence of] China and, to a lesser extent, Russia,” according to analyst Steven A. Cook , researcher of the region.
For its part, Israel sees normalization as an opportunity to bury the Arab-Israeli conflict and expand relations with Islamic nations; while, for Riyadh, it would open the door to economic and security cooperation to fuel Bin Salman’s Vision 2030, a well-established pragmatic plan that has already brought closer positions with Iran, Syria and Turkey.
Also, the Sunni kingdom wants the United States to give it more weapons and security guarantees, and support for the development of a civilian nuclear program, with uranium enrichment in Saudi territory. “If Iran gets a nuclear weapon, we must have one,” bin Salman said during the meeting with Fox News.
This is where the first rift between the parties arises. Although, according to the US news agency Bloomberg, Washington is considering signing twin defense pacts with Israel and Saudi Arabia, allowing a Saudi nuclear program would be too high a price. Interviewed on CNN, Netanyahu raised “important problems” on this issue, but also pointed out that there is “a window of opportunity in the coming months”.
The Palestinian issue cracks the rift a little more. Bin Salman does not cultivate loyalty to the Palestinians, but his father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, knows that in terms of public opinion the latter remains an Arab struggle and considered it “very important” within the pact.
The crown prince has avoided explicitly proposing the creation of a Palestinian state. Instead, what is on the table is for Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians, which would include Israel ceding control of areas of the occupied West Bank to the Palestinian Authority or eliminating illegal outposts. Unlike what happened with the Abraham Accords between Israel and some Arab countries, the Palestinian Authority is not calling for a boycott and has indicated its conditions to Saudi Arabia.
But even the smallest concession sounds impossible under the current far-right Israeli Government, with a Netanyahu who, in addition to demanding that the Palestinians not be granted “veto power”, directly removed them from maps that he used at the UN to show his “New Middle East”.
Nor is it clear how far Riyadh would be willing to go. “In any case, even with minor concessions and more talk about a two-state solution, the Palestinians after another Abraham deal are likely to have even less influence and fewer options than before. And the Israeli right would be rightly confirmed, in their opinion, that they can maintain the colonization of the West Bank and sustain what in practice is an apartheid-like system without further consequences,” predicts Paul Salem, president of the Middle East Institute. based in Washington.
Other unknowns hover over the eventual signatories of an agreement, and are the internal resistances. Will Biden be able to get the approval of Democrats and Republicans for a pact involving Saudi Arabia, a country he had promised to treat as an “outcast” and which is unpopular among congressmen? Can he push for a success that would strengthen the most far-right Israeli government in history, despite protests inside and outside Israel?
These are questions and obstacles that the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel will have to avoid if they want to achieve the long-awaited normalization agreement.
