The parliamentary calendar points to an end of summer and an autumn of high intensity and uncertainty. The numbers at the moment serve to form some majorities in the Congress of Deputies, but there are other unresolved issues that will require political engineering. The first date marked is the constitution of the Courts, on August 17. It is the start of the legislature because on that day the composition of the assemblies is elected and parliamentarians swear or abide by the Constitution.
The focus is on the Lower House, where the first agreements to form majorities can be seen. The PSOE, Sumar, ERC, EH Bildu, the PNB and the BNG have the numbers for a socialist candidate to preside over Congress next term and to control the table of nine members with a majority of five representatives against four. If the PP and Vox do not agree, as happened in 2019, the majority could even be six members for the left and three for the right. The PP has an absolute majority to control the Senate.
The liturgy of August 17 in Congress is taxed, first of all, in articles 2 and 3 of the regulations. The oldest deputy will preside over the constitutive session – in 2019 it was Agustín Zamarreño, of the PSOE, who did not repeat on the lists – and the two youngest will act as secretaries. Article 37 of the regulation states, on the other hand, that to elect the president of the Congress, an absolute majority will be needed in the first ballot. If no one obtains it, “the election will be repeated between the deputies who have obtained the two highest votes and the one who obtains the most votes will be chosen”. Vice-presidents and secretaries are elected simultaneously: whoever gets the most votes will be elected in successive order.
The next date to follow is the week that begins on August 21, when the King, once the Courts have been constituted, could start the round of consultations to find out the availability of Sánchez or Feijóo to face an investiture. Neither of them has the numbers today to get it. Feijóo contacted Vox, the PNB, CC and UPN yesterday. The Prime Minister, for his part, plans to take vacation until mid-August. No hurry.
That same week that begins on the 21st, the Congress will have to close the constitution of the parliamentary groups, assessed for the five days following the constitution of the hemicycle. The bar for having its own group, which entails more financial resources, personnel and public exposure, is not exceeded by either ERC or Junts at this moment because they have not obtained a minimum of 15% of the votes in the four Catalan constituencies. EH Bildu could give one of its deputies to the Republicans.
From this point, the scenario that opens up for the end of August and September is complex. If the Head of State proposes a candidate for the seat of the Government, the countdown to the second election will be activated. The procedure is regulated in article 99 of the Constitution. The president of the Congress would specify when the investiture session would be. According to the usual times, that time could be the first half of September. The candidate should obtain an absolute majority in the first vote or a simple majority in a second forty-eight hours later. If, as happened in 2016, “confidence is not granted, successive proposals will be processed in the manner provided for in the previous sections”, states the Magna Carta. A period of two months would then open, until November, to achieve a successful investiture. If no candidate gets the confidence of Congress, the King would dissolve the chambers and call a second election. In other words, the chamber would have until November to break the political deadlock and avoid a repeat election. If that investiture fails, the elections could be held at the beginning of 2024. Sánchez already said yesterday that he ruled out repeating what happened four years ago.
But there is also the possibility that no candidate will opt for the investiture. There is a dangerous precedent: in January 2016, when Rajoy declined the head of state’s offer to run. A month later, the PSOE and Cs signed an agreement to present Sánchez. It failed, but the clock was activated. The second election did not avoid a new blockade, which was only deactivated after the socialist federal committee of October 1 that removed Sánchez to facilitate the investiture of the PP candidate.