Basque politics, predictable in recent years, is currently witnessing script changes that anticipate a new political cycle with new protagonists. The announcement of the departure of Iñigo Urkullu was followed by the news that the PNB has Imanol Pradales, a 48-year-old university professor on leave and currently deputy for Infrastructures of Bizkaia as a replacement. EH Bildu, meanwhile, expects that Arnaldo Otegi will communicate to his political table on Monday a reflection on his future that will most likely end with a bid for bicephaly: with Otegi as general coordinator and an alternative candidate for the fight with the GNP.
The changes that are taking place do not only look at what is closer, the elections that will be held between March and June, but open the door to a wide political horizon. The previous political cycle, which began with the end of ETA in 2011, gives way to a new one, which, for the moment, continues to be marked by the struggle between the PNB and EH Bildu. It will be played by a new generation.
The Jeltzales face this situation with many doubts after the results in the May and July elections, although also with audacity. The Euskadi Buru Batzar (EBB), the party’s executive, has chosen to face the pending generational transition in a determined way. They rehearsed it, with mixed results, in the municipal and regional elections in May, also looking for the arrival of more women in command positions in the Basque institutional framework.
Replacing Urkullu with Pradales, however, is a much riskier move. The EBB is looking for fresh air to break the dynamic that comes from the last two appointments with the ballot boxes. A candidate from a generation after the Urkullu-Ortuzar-Esteban trident, with experience in public management, to inspire and mobilize his electorate.
The difficulty for the Jeltzales lies in the fact that their decline in the last elections is due to a cluster of factors, something that makes diagnosis and political response difficult. Multiple reasons are pointed out, even from the militancy side: wear and tear due to the management of so many institutions; problems in the Basque Health-Osakidetza System or in areas of education; the response that has been given to local issues that citizens identified as urgent (in San Sebastià, housing and tourism management; in Bilbao, security…); corruption scandals such as the De Miguel case; the sufficiency with which it has been concluded that certain infrastructure projects would be done “either yes or no” or, even, the generational changes in Basque society.
Back in the day, Urkullu and his team knew how to read the political moment in which a society was calling for stability and management. They built a discourse of social content around a “Basque model of sustainable human development” and bet on seeking transversal agreements, although prioritizing understanding with their PSE partners. Faced with the option of charismatic leadership, they opted for a sober and reliable leader.
It is clear that this road was showing wear and tear. In the last Basque Sociometer, however, Urkullu maintained extraordinary cross-sectional approval rates. In May, he was approved by 93% of his party’s voters, 82% of PSE voters, 80% of PP voters, 64% of Podemos voters, 50% of EH Bildu voters and 48% of from Vox.
Imanol Pradales, the one chosen by the PNB, will need time and a lot of success to reach the levels of popularity and trust that Urkullu had reached. He will have in his favor his excellent training – he holds a doctorate in science and sociology from the University of Deusto and also has a few masters – and an experience of more than 15 years in public management linked to the Provincial Council of Bizkaia. Against him, an image of a technocrat, excessively linked to the field of business and infrastructures, and a very Biscayan profile that may have difficulty penetrating in some areas. His relief represents, in any case, the generational change that the PNB is looking for and that will be followed by Ortuzar’s departure from the party leadership in the summer.
In the meantime, EH Bildu will, in all probability, opt for an intermediate path. Arnaldo Otegi, 65 years old, has already indicated that he wants to continue one more term as general coordinator of the coalition. As for his eventual aspiration to the presidency, it is very likely that tomorrow he will announce his desire to open the door to other alternatives. The bicephaly option is gaining weight.
The Abertzale formation already knows that it will face a solvent and moderate profile, but closely linked to the economic field. They think of candidates with a more social profile and who, equally, can offer this perspective of generational relief. They do not see it as easy to reach Ajuria Enea, although they aspire to be the most voted force and to place the PNB in ??the difficult situation of needing the votes of the PSE and the PP to govern. This situation could obviously weaken the Jeltzales in the short term. Pradales is their best bet to avoid this.
The relay between Iñigo Urkullu and Imanol Pradales is not being forged as the PNB would have liked, although the Jeltzales have found several anecdotes that try to sweeten it. The first goes back to the childhood of the future nationalist candidate, in Mamariga, a working-class neighborhood of Santurtzi, on the left bank of Bilbao. There, Pradales had as a teacher Urkullu himself, at the ikastola Asti Leku, a Basque environment in the middle of one of the most Spanish-speaking regions of the Basque Country. He grew up in this area, in a family of workers linked to Basque nationalism (his grandfather was a gudari and his parents joined in 1976), and he got close to politics. “It keeps alive the memories of dozens of AlderdiEgunes and Aberri Egunes”, they point out from the party. This passion for politics, which he combined with rowing on a fixed bank, led him to study and get a doctorate in political science and sociology. Being a professor at the University of Deusto Urkullu, he asked him for some papers related to the scope of his thesis: employment and competitiveness. Afterwards, she encouraged him to enter politics. At the age of 30, he decided to leave campus and make the move. What he did not imagine is that 18 years later he would take over from his teacher at the ikastola.
