Tall, thin, with long limbs and a cavernous and assertive voice, Jaime Miquel (Madrid, 1959) is considered one of the most important experts in electoral behavior in the country. Author of La perestroika de Felipe VI, a book that in 2014 anticipated the end of bipartisanship and the peremptory nature of democratic modernization, after four decades of what he calls “post-Francoism”, Miquel, who has advised more than half of the parties in the parliamentary arch and has been Pedro Sánchez’s electoral behavior advisor from 2018 to 2023.
The immediate thing is the Galician elections. Is there a party?
There are two factors that tell us that change is perfectly possible. The first is that Rueda is not a better candidate than Feijóo. Feijóo was in 48% and got 42 deputies. With the PP at 45.5%, it would be in 37 seats, that is to say, it is two and a half points away from losing the absolute majority. Although it is actually more like 47%, not 48%, then it is one and a half points away from losing the Xunta. And on the other hand, in the general election, private polls lost all credit and voters lost all confidence in what they say. In Galicia, when the polls gave the PP an absolute majority, the campaign ended and a contest broke out on the left side to see who led the opposition. That won’t happen this time, of course. Voters will be suspicious, so the feeling that there may be change will last until the last day.
I understand.
On the other hand, Sumar is 4.4% in Galicia, 5.1% in Pontevedra and 5% in A Coruña. For it not to enter, the total figure would have to be closer to 4% than 4.5%. Podemos is marginal and heads the misunderstanding, so it can only steal a few votes. So Sumar is above 65,000 or 70,000 votes in Galicia, it is within the two provinces and there is no PP majority. The positions are very defined and the BNG is ahead of the PSOE, with around 320,000 votes.
And what incentive does the PSOE have to give power to the BNG and see Sumar return to Parliament?
This is a good question. The PSOE in this section of 2024 has on its way a European election in which it needs all the votes, including those of Sumar, to be the most voted list in front of the PP. And that’s why the rise of Vox is more important than what the PSOE can get from Sumar. That’s why Feijóo is right in its tactic of not giving them space. It is a tactical success, although a strategic mistake, because it moves away from occupying the central spaces, those that give the government.
So?
If there is a change of government, the presidency would be handed over to Ana Pontón and the bloc would be aligned with ERC and Bildu, the three communities, on the ground of the non-Spanish nationalists. But if the PP loses the Xunta de Galicia, the political future of Alberto Núñez Feijóo will be very sad. The PSOE is about to eliminate it. It is an important incentive for the PSOE, especially because now we will stop talking about the Galician women and we will go to the parliamentary session of the week. Because the PSOE – Enric Juliana also emphasized this recently in an article – needs the consensus of all. You cannot behave, PSOE, as you have behaved so far. Because? Well, because there is no route there. You have to negotiate everything with everyone and every time. And in this sense, the votes on the decrees have a very healthy didactic contribution. In other words, this is not about “behaving”, this is about the historic opportunity to make a deep cultural change in the political culture of the PSOE and the other parties. It is fully transversal and transferable to society as a whole. I explained this in an article in Infolibre.
Yes, about plurinationality.
It is a Spanish identity concept. Catalan independenceists are uninational nationalists, like the Spanish nationalists of Vox and PP. But Spain is plurinational. In other words, which Spain do you have in your heart? Spain where the sun doesn’t set? It is that of Felipe II. And what was this Spain like? It wasn’t Spanish. It was a set of autonomous kingdoms in their national designs.
If perhaps it was, it was Biscayne.
Yes, or even Extremadura.
Cert.
Then, you turn upside down when they talk to you about amnesty, because the Spain you rationalize is that of New Plant, of Castilian parentage, planted by Francisco Franco and therefore authoritarian. There is a contradiction between this Spain that you long for where the sun never sets, which was, save the distances, plurinational, and the one that makes you react, which is national, Castilian and authoritarian.
The European elections are the test of ratification of the result of July, which is Spain that really exists and not a conjuncture, and the future of Feijóo is at stake. But Euskadi and Catalonia are on the calendar.
I don’t have data on Euskadi or Catalonia, but I do have impressions. Impressions and memory. In other words, the PNB is a political formation that always improves during the campaign the initial results that are estimated. My impression is that these elections will be won as always by the PNB, with a significant progression of Bildu and a setback for the state formations, the PP and the PSOE. And as a political result, a PNB government with the support of the PSOE.
And the Catalan elections?
My impression is that the PSC will have a great result, corresponding to a change of page in Catalan politics. These are no longer times of unilateralism or confrontation with what they call “the State”. We are in another phase, a phase of concrete agreements. And here you have the Amnesty law, but also other agreements that can be expressed in a renewed statute. There are more of us here than anywhere else.
