How much is the independence vote for the investiture worth?

“Frozen, no; burning”. That was the state of relations between ERC and Junts until a week ago. The call for general elections has provided a new scenario for the pro-independence parties, but the flames have not been put out and work is being done to contain the perimeter. The ground is not prepared for a joint list, or for a “democratic bloc” of sovereignists, or even for a shared program. For now. And the calendar runs towards 23-J. Republicans and post-convergents have to survive first the jungle of local deals that will grow for another week. It is there where the directions have put their efforts to try to advance hand in hand without adding new reproaches.

Will it be possible? The agreements can become a throwing weapon or be avoided with an eye on the distribution of power of county councils and councils. That was where Marta Rovira and Jordi Turull put the focus last Friday in Geneva. But the list of local grievances increases every day with the PSC as a hinge. “Not everyone fulfills their commitments,” insists Oriol Junqueras, brandishing a growing list of agreements between Junts and PSC: Roses, Calonge, Lloret de Mar, Sitges… In Junts they have their own list with the ERC acronym in red.

The Socialists are advancing with the electoral tailwind –despite the PSOE– and have taken note of failed municipal experiences. The poor results in Sant Cugat and Figueres are attributed to pacts considered unnatural with the ERC and the CUP, but they will take advantage of the disaffection among independentistas to consolidate mayoralties beyond the metropolitan area. It will not be Salvador Illa who breaks bridges with ERC or Junts. The PSC is convinced that now it is the management that sinks the independence movement and ERC may have started an electoral cycle of fall.

On the ground, what separates ERC and Junts responds more to the incompatibility of the local candidates than to the strategy of the leaderships, but each agreement that ignores the independence axis adds fuel to the fire of the bases, raises the volume of critics and it makes it difficult to apply with the urgencies of each party.

In Junts, watered with votes by the pragmatic sector, calm has prevailed. The result of 28-M and the replacement without new injuries of Laura Borràs at the helm of Parliament gives Turull enough room for maneuver to face the new negotiation window with ERC. Borràs has understood that she had to accompany the new president of the Chamber, Anna Erra; and in the executive on Tuesday, the vehement attempt to veto the pacts with the PSC was settled with an “avui does not touch”. The post-convergent direction recommends waiting until the 17th, the date of constitution of the town councils, to check who has agreed more with the Socialists. And the reluctance of Carles Puigdemont to agreements such as that of the Diputació de Barcelona in 2019 are more than digested. Even more so when his trusted man, Josep Rius, is part of Xavier Trias’s municipal team, which advocates an agreement with ERC and the PSC.

In ERC an attempt is made to quell territorial unrest with more independence. The management of the Aragonese Government does not add votes and its democratic front does not find subscribers. Junqueras heard reproaches in the assembly that attacked the waterline of his strategy, but confidence in the leadership prevailed. Now Gabriel Rufián walks his “Catalonia or Vox” and demands that the independence movement “put a price” on a hypothetical investiture of Pedro Sánchez. The ERC candidate has always reproached Junts for ignoring state governance and boasting of being “useful”. He now claims to “get down and put the leg”. ERC’s priority in 2019 was to quietly resolve the procedural situation of those involved in 1-O. With pardons and reform of the Criminal Code, the final result of the processes is no longer in their hands and the “successes” have not given electoral returns.

What is the new price of the independence vote? It will depend on whether both parties are necessary, on the ERC’s ability to resist a new electoral coup and on whether there is a will in Junts to squeeze self-government. Meanwhile, the defense of self-determination and the end of repression are set as an innocuous meeting point for independence.