Script twists are a central resource of the television series that American politics has become; even more so in an election year, which is usually a grassroots race. But only a major surprise could prevent a repeat of the plot of the previous season: a battle between Joe Biden and Donald Trump to reach the White House. Neither the fatigue of moderate Republicans, nor the 91 criminal charges brought in four lawsuits, nor the civil trials for fraud, sexual abuse and defamation, do not seem to be weighty arguments against the main allegation of the Trump campaign: that the election was stolen from him, that he is the rightful president and that an alleged deep state is conspiring to prevent him from returning to power.
At the time of closing this edition, the citizens of New Hampshire continued to vote in their primaries, the second election of the year. If, when the polls open, the ultra-conservative achieves an overwhelming result like the one he got in the Iowa caucuses (51%), he will pave his way to the Republican nomination. After the withdrawal of Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis from the race, there is only one alternative to their unquestioned dominance of the party: Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, who in 2017 served in his administration as ambassador to the UN.
Haley had her big chance tonight to vindicate herself as the useful vote to oust Trump. In a less conservative state than Iowa, and with the support of Governor Chris Sununu, his luck depended on the ability to capture the vote of independents and moderate Republicans. But despite the fact that in one month she has doubled her position in the polls (from 17% to 34%), yesterday she was still separated by 18 points from the former president in the northern state.
But Haley is confident in his options: the electoral race “has always been a marathon, never a sprint”, he assured yesterday in front of the press, that for days he has been predicting his withdrawal if today is a resounding defeat. “The political class and the media want to crown Trump. They say the race is over, after only 110,000 people have voted in the Iowa caucuses,” his campaign denounced in a statement: “It doesn’t work like that. 50% of Republican voters want an alternative to Trump. 75% of the country wants an option that is neither Trump nor Biden. We will not move from here”.
While the Republican voter base remains aligned with Trump, Haley has focused her campaign towards the most moderate and those registered as independents, who can also vote in these primaries and make up 40% of the electorate. Although his profile is equally conservative – he promises massive tax cuts, is against Obamacare, hostile to trans people and abortion rights, and has taken a position in favor of “deporting” immigrants -, represents a more traditional position in the Republican Party. Especially on foreign policy: He dissociates himself from Trump’s isolationism and believes in US leadership in the world, which is reflected in his support for additional aid to Ukraine and its admission to NATO , in the face of the tycoon’s firm opposition.
Trump closed his campaign Monday with an hour-long speech in Laconia, New Hampshire, accompanied by three of the candidates who withdrew from the race: Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Gov. David Burgum, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. With a victorious tone, accompanied by mockery of Haley, he assured that “every day, the Republican Party is more united” around him. “We started against 13 and now we only have two left: one will probably withdraw tomorrow, and the other will leave in November”, he ventured, giving them the victory, also, in the general election against Biden.
He ended his rally, as is customary, to the sound of the song Justice for all, a theme associated with the extremist QAnon movement in defense of those accused of the assault on the Capitol. “Free the January 6th,” shouted someone in the audience, and Trump replied, “We will,” referring to those detained to try to prevent the transition of power to Biden in 2021 as “hostages.” “Twelve years of Trump”, was heard at another time, and the tycoon joked: “Don’t say it too loudly… You know they love to call me a fascist”.
In New Hampshire, only 22 of the total of 2,429 delegates who will elect the Republican candidate for the White House in July, in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), will be distributed. They will be added to the 40 that were appointed last week by the Iowa caucuses.
Democrats also voted yesterday in New Hampshire, but the name of their clear favorite, Joe Biden, was not on the ballot. The Democratic National Committee decided in February, against a tradition dating back to the 1920s, that the northern state would not be the first to hold a primary: its official calendar begins in South Carolina on February 3. However, New Hampshire Democrats opposed the change, and while Biden does not recognize the vote, whoever did decide to vote for it yesterday had to write their name by hand on the ballot.
