Nightmare in supermarkets. It is not the title of a Christmas film, but the raw reality. Consumers are still absorbing the rise in olive oil when they have to prepare for another possible shock, this time affecting citrus fruits and, especially, oranges.
Although it has yet to hit the shelves thanks to resilient domestic production, the environment is hostile. In international markets, futures traded in Chicago for orange juice (concentrated and frozen) have soared this year. It’s the most profitable investment of 2023, right up there with bitcoin. After the correction of the last few weeks, the gains are still 80%. Prices are at historic highs (since 1966) and have tripled in two years.
The perfect storm has two definite causes. Climate change due to the phenomenon of l and hurricanes (Ian and Nicole) have affected the harvests. And the arrival of a plague, through a bacteria that affects the quality of the fruit, which can kill the affected tree in a few years, threatens to spread from the Americas and Africa to Europe as well (and Spain).
In July, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced that it expected Florida, the nation’s citrus epicenter, to produce about 70 percent fewer orange boxes than the 2020-2021 season. Other exporters, such as Brazil and Mexico, also cut forecasts for the year and spoke of harvest difficulties due to warmer weather.
Matthew Joyner, executive director of Florida Citrus Mutual, a company that brings together 2,000 companies in the sector, has stated in different media that the production of orange juice in the US is at the lowest levels for more than a hundred years.
“20 years ago we produced 240 million boxes, now we will finish the season with only 18”, complained Joyner. “Supply and demand dictate that, with such a reduced harvest, there will be upward pressure on prices. I’d like to think we can deal with hurricanes and massive floods, but there’s really little we can do, production-wise, to fight back against Mother Nature. “Our last big harvest was five years ago. We are in a situation of practically zero supply”, they added from the Brazilian citrus sector, which accounts for 70% of world exports.
In Spain, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food foresees a production of 5.75 million tons of citrus in the 2023-2024 campaign, so the harvest will be “predictably similar” to the previous one, but 14.4 % below the average of the last five.
However, the picture is liable to worsen. And it has a name and surname: Candidatus liberibacter, responsible for a bacterial disease known as Huanglongbing (HLB) or greening. “It is considered the most important, serious and destructive pathology of citrus fruits in the world”, as can be read in the contingency plan drawn up by the ministry at the beginning of this year. “Most infected trees die within three to ten years and there is no cure. It is estimated that this disease affects more than 100 million trees in the world.
HLB is present in the five main citrus producing countries (China, Brazil, India, Mexico and the USA), where it causes an enormous economic impact. Spain, the world’s sixth largest citrus producer, is seriously threatened, as are the rest of the citrus regions still free of the disease.
At the moment, there is an expansion of Trioza erytreae – the vector insect of the most benign African strain of HLB – in the north of Spain and along almost the entire Atlantic coast of Portugal. The first outbreaks were detected in the Canary Islands (2002), and in the Peninsula, in Galicia, in the provinces of Pontevedra and A Coruña, and in restricted areas of Lugo and Ourense. Recently, distribution has been extended to the Cantabrian ledge, in Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country. The measures range from border controls, insecticides and the possibility of introducing resistant varieties to inspections on the ground, along with a long series of preventive protocols.
However, care must be taken because for the first time Diaphorina citri has been detected in EU territory, which is the most efficient Asian carrier vector of the most aggressive and lethal strain for citrus fruits. According to the Interprofessional Citrícola Española (Intercitrus), if the bacterium expands, it could put an end to national production in a few years.
Will the breakfast of orange juice and bread with oil end up being a luxury?
