France evacuated its citizens living in Niger yesterday, using three military Airbuses. The measure was taken following the aggravation of the crisis in the African country, victim of a coup on Wednesday of last week, and the danger of armed intervention by neighboring states.
Spain, Italy and Germany also announced the repatriation of their residents. Rome indicated that it would send a plane. It was not clear in the Spanish case, for security reasons. Authorities in Berlin advised German citizens to take advantage of French flights, as Paris offered other Europeans the possibility of leaving Niger on its planes.
The French Government wanted to take advantage of the relative calm, albeit tense, in Niamey to put its civilian colony – between 600 and 700 people – out of danger, before events escalated. The LCI chain offered images of vehicle controls at the entrance to Niamey airport and of French people queuing with their suitcases in a calm environment. However, the French General Staff communicated that the evacuation of its 1,500 soldiers who remain in Niger “is not on the agenda”.
Sunday will end the one-week ultimatum given by eleven countries of the Economic Community of West African States (CEDAO) for the Nigerien coup junta to put down its attitude and restore the legitimate president, Mohamed Bazoum, to power. , elected in 2021 and who has been detained since the putsch. Otherwise, ECOWAS does not exclude the use of force.
The risk of an escalation with serious regional consequences is there. Mali and Burkina Faso, both countries governed by military juntas that emerged from coups d’état, showed solidarity with the new strongman in Niamey, General Abdourahamane. “Any military intervention against Niger would be equivalent to a declaration of war against Mali and Burkina Faso”, the spokesmen of the two regimes declared in unison. That of Guinea, also in the hands of the military since the overthrow of Alpha Condé in September 2021, was pronounced in similar terms. The solidarity between coup plotters is evident.
It is likely that, in the event of external military intervention, it will be Nigeria, Niger’s neighbor and current ECOWAS chairman, that will provide the bulk of the troops, a ground intervention with air support. It is unknown what involvement the 1,500 French soldiers who are still in Niger and the 1,100 Americans would have. Both contingents have participated in recent years, with the approval of the Niamey authorities, in the anti-jihadist fight. There is no doubt that the coup junta will be tempted to accuse Paris of complicity and logistical support, a further reason for danger if French citizens remain in the country.
In addition to the military threat, ECOWAS decreed an economic and financial blockade against Niger. Nigeria has an additional lever of pressure on its neighbor, to whom it supplies 50% of its electricity. The Nigerian president, Bola, recently elected, maintains a very firm position in the face of coups. He and other regional leaders believe that they must be uncompromising with the rebels because of the serious danger of contagion.