A decisive electoral campaign for the future of Spain begins, the fourth economy of the European Union and today one of the pillars of damaged Europeanism: the line in favor of greater integration of national states. More Europe More common strategies and decisions. More community regulatory framework. Today this is not the tone in most European societies, from France to Poland, from Finland to Italy, which gives the Spanish legislative elections a very special bias.
Apparently, July 23 will not decide what weight national sovereignty has against Europeanism in Spain. This has been the main discussion in almost all the electoral processes that have taken place after the start of the war in Ukraine: France, Hungary, Denmark, Sweden, Italy, Bulgaria, Finland… This will be, with great intensity , the main axis of the election campaign in Poland in October. Apparently, this is not the discussion in Spain. There has been another exception: Greece.
The two main contenders, PSOE and Partit Popular, support, with different nuances, European integration, since they are part of the two great political families that have agreed on the architecture of the Union from the Maastricht treaty (1992) .
The other two relevant formations with candidacies in all provinces have other characteristics. The Sumar platform, which we could define as a softened version of Unides Podemos, defends greater European integration, with more emphasis on social and environmental policy. Vox moves in other directions: it does not openly question Spain’s membership of the EU, but it joins the ranks of right-wing sovereignism that wants the devolution of power to the European national states. More national state, less integration. It is the line captained by the ultra-nationalists who govern Poland and Hungary.
The entry of Vox into the government of Spain would be one of the substantive novelties of July 23. This coalition would change the political balance in the current European Council (periodic meeting of the heads of government and state) and would announce the possibility of a change of majority in the European institutions from June 2024, after the European elections.
Until a few months ago, the Popular Party denied the possibility of a government coalition with Vox. After the local elections on May 28, he no longer denies it. Spain, therefore, can modify the European script in a month. This is one of the most important keys to 23-J, but not the most explicit.
The most obvious spring refers to the vote to punish the only left-wing coalition government that works in Europe, eroded by the chain of adverse events experienced since the pandemic. A government with a complex parliamentary geometry – which has approved three budgets during its term -, a political experiment anchored in the periphery that from the first day has had against what we could call the Madrid system, the articulation of interests and points in view of the superimposed powers in the capital of Spain: economic powers, media, with special weight of private television, high judiciary, high officials, galvanization by the powerful Community of Madrid. A Government never accepted by Madrid DF. How long can an Executive who opposes this system of power rule Spain? How much longer can the coalition that took the decision to pardon the Catalan separatists sentenced to prison rule Spain? This is the question he will answer on July 23.
A malaise at the top that connects with other malaise at the bottom, aggravated by inflation. The first warning was the local elections of May 28, in which the electoral space to the left of the PSOE was disarticulated as a result of the bitter and tenacious dispute between Podem and Yolanda Díaz over the format of Sumar. An incredible discussion with two months to go before local elections that were decisive.
The PSOE held on, but the left-wing surge handed over six communities and numerous councils to the PP-Vox coalition, which accentuated the feeling of the end of the cycle. The Popular Party is once again the Alpha Party and emerges as the favorite. The evolution of the polls in the last two weeks indicates, however, that the game remains open. The electoral campaign will be completely decisive.
