Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo have passed through Barcelona in 24 hours. A good result in Catalonia has always been decisive for winning the Moncloa. But if the Catalans join the wave of the PP, it means that it will reach very remarkable dimensions. The transformation of CiU into Junts has left a sector of the electorate orphaned, according to the people. A center-right voter, of order, frustrated with the process, in which both the PP and the PSC want to fish.
Catalonia and the Basque Country have traditionally been territories hostile to the PP, which has only at specific times achieved notable gains in these territories. Its difficulty to take root among Catalans and Basques was argued by the existence of two centre-right nationalist parties, the PNB and CiU. The Catalan case is more worrying for the PP, since it is the second most populous community, after Andalusia, formerly a socialist hotbed and now much closer to the popular ones. The question is: which party now best represents the centre-right in Catalonia?
Feijóo believes that, without CiU, there is still a long way to go. Pujolismo seduced the middle classes for almost 40 years. But the pro-independence process has upset everything and subordinated the ideological axis to the national one to the point that Convergència ended up allying itself with an anti-system party like the CUP, in addition to adopting the creation and increase of taxes against the shortage of public resources caused by the financial crisis.
Feijóo hopes to exceed the eight seats that the polls give him in this community. He could even get representation for Girona, where the PP finds it very difficult to enter. They would be the same ones that José María Aznar got when he arrived at Moncloa and had to negotiate the support of CiU. He got those eight seats (698,000 votes) with Aleix Vidal-Quadras in Catalonia and his tough speech against Catalan nationalism, in the style that Ciutadans would later adopt. With a more moderate story and, above all, an investment policy in Catalonia, Aznar would raise the bar in the 2000 elections.
That time the PP won twelve seats in Catalonia (763,000 votes) and it was Josep Piqué who led the spectacular rise. Ana Botella revealed that on that election night she learned that her husband had obtained an absolute majority when they were told the result in Catalonia. Mariano Rajoy would only approach it again in 2011, already in the middle of the financial crisis and with Alicia Sánchez-Camacho in the Catalan PP (715,800 votes and 11 deputies).
Feijóo hopes for a good result in Catalonia that will catapult him to Moncloa and, from there, remake the Catalan Popular Party, then trying to attract figures from civil society to build his project.
It is difficult to measure support for the right in Catalonia. Ciudadans, when it defined itself as liberal, won regional elections, but it is clear that its growth was a reaction to the pro-independence boom and not so much to the ideology of its program. On 23-J, Vox’s votes will also have to be added to those of the PP in the right-wing sarró. It could be added that the elector who pursues PDECat-Espai CiU is also in the centre-right, although his vision on the national issue is different. With Junts everything is more confusing. In recent times, it has accentuated its centre-right discourse, but the ups and downs of recent years and independence radicalism blur the profile of the order party of the old Convergència.
So much so that even ERC has believed that it could occupy this seemingly orphaned space with winks at the economic elites and with the signing of figures from the converging sphere such as Councilor Carles Campuzano. The PSC is also trying to install itself in a central situation to inherit Convergence votes unhappy with the process. Salvador Illa agrees with whoever is needed (except Vox) but does not spare gestures towards Junts.
In order for the PP to take advantage of Junts’ ideological reluctance, Feijóo mainly talks about the economy when he visits Catalonia, although he keeps his promise to recover the crime of sedition, eliminate the dialogue table between the Catalan and central governments and force the Generalitat to comply with the application of 25% Spanish in schools. All are fronts that guarantee a clash with the ERC Executive.
That is why Sánchez has been insistently warning over the last few days that a PP Government would lead to a return to political and social tension in Catalonia.
