The result of the autonomous elections of 28-M in the twelve communities that were called to the polls provide an impulse equivalent to 26 deputies in the General Courts for the president of the Popular Party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
This is reflected in an analysis carried out by Servimedia when extrapolating the autonomous results of Sunday to the distribution of seats by provincial constituencies that will be applied in the general elections that the President of the Government, the socialist Pedro Sánchez, has called for next July 23.
The PP reinforced this Sunday the power it already had in the Community of Madrid and in the Region of Murcia and, in addition, seized power in six territories from the PSOE in the regional elections.
Thus, Isabel DÃaz Ayuso achieved a large absolute majority of 71 seats in the capital of Spain and Gonzalo Capellón regained power for the popular in La Rioja with another absolute majority of 17 parliamentarians.
Feijóo’s party won at the same time in Cantabria with MarÃa José Sáenz de Buruaga, in Aragón with Jorge Azcón, in the Balearic Islands with Marga Prohens, and in the Valencian Community with Carlos Mazón, which will allow him to govern in all of them with the support of Vox.
Although he lost the elections in Extremadura, his candidate, MarÃa Guardiola, can form an absolute majority with Vox in this community, where the socialist Guillermo Fernández Vara has already announced that he is leaving politics by giving up the Presidency.
The electoral turnaround on the night of 28-M can also become a boost in the general elections for Feijóo in the event that a similar result is repeated at the polls, since he would obtain 26 more deputies in Congress than in the last general ones of 2019.
The Community of Madrid provides the bulk of those 26 seats, since thanks to the absolute majority of Ayuso the PP would have 20 deputies in the Cortes Generales compared to 10 four years ago. The PSOE would drop from 10 to 7, Vox would lose 4 to the benefit of the popular and the space to the left of the Socialists would repeat the seven that Podemos and Más PaÃs now share as long as Yolanda DÃaz manages to get them to run together now.
In the Valencian Community, the PP would obtain 13 deputies, another notable increase of 5 seats in Congress after the autonomous triumph of Mazón, while the PSOE would fall from 10 to 6, Vox from 7 to 3, and a confluence of lefts in Sumar would rise 5 to 6.
Aragón would contribute 6 deputies to Feijóo, two more than in 2019. For its part, the PSOE would drop from 6 to 5, Vox would maintain 1, Teruel Existe would survive with 1 and Unidas Podemos would lose its representation in this region.
In Castilla-La Mancha, the PP lost the regional elections against Emiliano GarcÃa-Page, the only socialist baron who survives with an absolute majority. Even so, Feijóo would add at least 8 deputies instead of the 7 of four years ago, while the PSOE would rise from 9 to 11 in the event that Pedro Sánchez achieved the same support as his baron. Instead, Vox would fall from 5 deputies to 1.
The Region of Murcia would provide another small boost to Feijóo by passing the PP in this community from 3 deputies in Congress to 5, while the PSOE would repeat with 3, Vox would drop from 3 to 2 and Unidas Podemos would disappear in this territory.
In the Balearic Islands, the PP would double the number of deputies by going up from 2 to 4 representatives in Congress compared to 2019. The PSOE would repeat with 2 and both Vox and Unidas Podemos would drop from 2 to 1.
The absolute majority of the PP in La Rioja does not change the distribution of deputies in this community, where only 4 seats are distributed in the general elections, so popular and socialists would distribute 2 seats each.
The regional overturn in Cantabria minimally alters the result for the general elections, since the PP would rise from 2 deputies to 3 to the detriment of Vox, which would disappear from this region. For its part, the PSOE would repeat with 3 and the Regionalist Party with 1.
In Asturias, where the socialist Adrián Barbón will be able to continue governing another legislature, the change would also be small, although the PP would get one more deputy by growing from 2 to 3, the PSOE would repeat with 3 and Unidas Podemos with 1. Vox would lose representation .
Finally, in Navarra everything depends on a possible pact between the PP and UPN to reissue the Navarra Suma coalition of four years ago and that this legislature blew up when deputies Sergio Sayas and Carlos GarcÃa Adanero broke voting discipline by rejecting the reform of the Government of Pedro Sánchez and align with the PP. The party then began the expulsion proceedings and both ended up signing for the popular for the 28-M lists.
Feijóo would have to ally with UPN again to repeat the two deputies of 2019. With the result of the regional elections in this community on 28-M, the PSOE would maintain its deputy and Bildu as well.
To this impulse of 26 deputies in Congress to repeat the autonomous result of 28-M, Feijóo’s PP would also have to add the turnaround it achieved in the Andalusian elections of 2022, when Juanma Moreno obtained an absolute majority in the Board, which now they have ratified the municipal ones with triumphs of the popular ones in all the provincial capitals, except in Jaen, where they have tied with the PSOE.
In 2019 Pablo Casado’s PP obtained 15 of the 61 deputies distributed by this region in Andalusia, while the PSOE won with 25 and Vox reached 12. If in the general elections on July 23 the Andalusians voted in a similar way to the regional ones Last year, Feijóo would achieve another boost of 19 seats in Congress, while the Socialists would drop 9, Vox would lose 6, Ciudadanos would disappear (-3) and Unidas Podemos would drop 1.
Specifically, Feijóo’s PP would sweep all the Andalusian provinces with 5 deputies in Cádiz, 4 in AlmerÃa, 3 in Córdoba, 4 in Granada, 3 in Huelva, 3 in Jaen, 6 in Málaga and 6 in Seville, a total of 34 seats for Andalusia, 19 more than those obtained in the previous general elections.
