A slower-than-expected start to the autumn season due to the high temperatures had raised alarms in the trade. With the exception of leisure and travel, sales did not take off, with a particular drop in the textile sector, which came to describe the situation as a “true drama”. Even fashion giant Inditex saw sales in its third quarter (August to October) slow, with growth of 6.7%, below analysts’ forecast and breaking a streak of ten quarters with double-digit increases.
But as the last two months have progressed, consumption has picked up oxygen. The Christmas campaign is going “better than we expected”, agree both large operators and small companies consulted. Black Friday already pointed to this recovery, comment from El Corte Inglés. “The doubt was whether this would phagocytize the sales of the Pont de la Constitucion, and that has not been the case”, they continue from the department stores. The sale remains sustained and expectations for the coming weekends, key to the Christmas campaign, are high, they add.
The same is indicated by the Spanish Association of Shopping Centres. “The influx and the volume of expenditure have been gaining momentum since the end of November and are not declining”, says Víctor García, the organization’s representative in Catalonia. Among the reasons for this recovery, García underlines the activation of reservoir consumption during much of the autumn. The star categories for Christmas continue to be fashion and home equipment, the sectors that sold the least during September and October. The late arrival of the cold weather and Christmas gifts have triggered purchases that were not made in that period because customers did not see the need for them.
This is what the analyzes of business associations and banking institutions suggest. The barometer of the textile association Acotex shows a year-on-year decrease in sales of 3.7% in October, while an increase of 1.8% is already observed in November. Data from CaixaBank Research move in the same direction. Consumption in November rebounded by 8.5%, the biggest increase since April. With regard to spending by card, it also showed better behavior in the first week of December, with an increase compared to the same period last year of 8.9%. Such an increase had not been recorded since the second quarter.
Sources from the large distribution company comment that volume sales are growing in the final stretch of the year. The runaway inflation at the beginning of 2023 had raised the value, but households were buying fewer products. “The trend is changing”, they continue. “Over the course of the year, consumer goods sales have grown by 12% in value and now we are finally seeing a recovery in volume, which is a very positive sign,” says Vanessa Páez, NielsenIQ analyst.
Not only the big operators benefit from this revitalization of consumption. Small businesses, which had a not-so-positive Black Friday campaign, have high hopes for these last days of the year and until Christmas. “This campaign will be more important than ever; after a few months of stagnation, it will be crucial to recover profitability”, explains Antoni Torres, president of PimeComerç.
The majority of traders in the Comertia association anticipate that this will be the case. 41% of employers expect a better Christmas campaign than last year, while 38.5% believe there will be stability and only 20% are pessimistic, given the context of inflation and rising interest rates.
However, the doubt that spreads throughout the sector is whether the pace of consumerism will be maintained after Reis and the sales. It will be the litmus test, they say, to be able to assess the health of consumption.