The fight between the PNV and EH Bildu ahead of the elections on April 21 remains at unprecedented equality and everything indicates that it will begin to decline during the weeks of the campaign, as the electoral tension increases. The average of the polls published to date places both parties at around 27 seats, with very small differences between the polls. Beyond this struggle, the polls agree in granting the PSE around 10-11 parliamentarians, the PP a representation similar to the current one, with around 6-7 seats, and, finally, they also anticipate a collapse of Podemos and Sumar, which Between the two parties, they would lose at least half of the representation that Elkarrekin Podemos currently holds (they have 6 parliamentarians).
The elections on April 21 require us to pay attention to two fundamental keys. The first has to do with that struggle between the PNV and EH Bildu, a fight in which it will be decided which party will be the next lehendakari and, also, who will take the symbolic victory in the elections, two questions that have no reason coincide. The second big key is whether PNV and PSE will gain an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament (38 seats) or whether they will need other support, which would complicate their objective of governing through an Executive similar to the one led by Iñigo Urkullu.
The head of the PNV list, Imanol Pradales, presents himself as the candidate with the best chance of being the next lehendakari, although how is fundamental. For the Jeltzales, it is essential to overcome EH Bildu in their ongoing struggle, since, if prevailing, Pello Otxandiano’s candidacy would score an unprecedented symbolic victory that would leave the Jeltzales affected.
Furthermore, for the Basque nationalists it is important to add at least 38 seats alongside the socialists, which would allow them to reissue a Basque Government with Jeltzal and socialist advisors, and govern comfortably. If the PNV achieves these two objectives, on April 21 at night Sabin Etxea will be a party, even if it may suffer a drop in votes and seats (today they have 31)
If none of these objectives are achieved, EH Bildu would place itself in a position of strength to support a change in the medium term and convey the image of the PNV as a party in decline, despite the fact that the jeltzales could move forward, the hand of the PSE, a minority Government and in great need of external support.
The results published to date appear extremely close with respect to the two variables. Of the six main polls published since February, only EiTB’s gives a relatively clear victory to the PNV (28 compared to 26 for EH Bildu), compared to another that gives a victory in seats to EH Bildu (Ikerfel’s for Naiz). The rest give a tie to very similar seats or brackets for the two formations.
As for an eventual absolute majority of the sum of PNV and PSE, only the EiTB Focus survey places these parties clearly above the majority (with 40 seats), while the rest place them between a minimum of 36 and a maximum of 39 parliamentarians. In this way, it is clear that the two fundamental keys to these elections will be decided by very few votes.
Considering the other points of interest in the elections, all the polls agree in pointing out a slight rise for the socialists, who, helped by the drop in the Elkarrekin- Podemos space, would go from 10 to 11 or 12 seats.
The polls also agree on placing the PP in a range of between a minimum of 5 and a maximum of 8 seats, in terms similar to its current representation (four years ago they obtained 6 seats in coalition with Ciudadanos).
The situation would be much worse for the political space that Podemos and Sumar represent. The decision to attend separately, together with the decline that both brands have been experiencing in contrast to the strength of this space in Euskadi around 2015, would lead them to lose around half of their representation. Regarding the fight for the same electorate between the two formations, the most recent polls place Sumar above Podemos, although it remains to be seen how that fight will be settled.
