The road to amnesty through which the negotiations between the Catalan independence parties and the Socialist Party to try to get the investiture of Pedro Sánchez is full of thorns on both sides. The concept of amnesty is easy to explain and explain, but the most difficult thing will be to put lyrics to music. When you get into the details, everything will be turned upside down, both in the legal field and, above all, in the political field.
From the legal perspective we have already seen that there are opinions for all tastes. The law, and even more so when it tries to shape political solutions, can be as ductile and malleable as the exigencies of the legislator demand. And once an amnesty law has been approved, it will be possible to continue discussing whether or not it fits the Constitution until the TC has the last word.
Paper holds everything, but politics does not. It is not at all easy that the PSOE, Esquerra and Junts can feel comfortable at the same level of demand. What for some can be a leonine condition, for others it can be experienced as a resignation and a hair-pulling. Who is included and who is not on the list of amnesties is not an easy task, and it is also not easy to deactivate the dozens of judicial processes that are underway or already concluded. For example, in 2021, Òmnium set the number of people retaliated during the process at 3,300 and a few days ago the same entity specified that the potential beneficiaries of an amnesty law must be 1,430.
Junts per Catalunya has insisted a lot on the idea of ??wanting to pay in advance, aware of the Socialist Party’s proven record of non-compliance. But the times of the investiture are finite and it is complicated for the effects of an amnesty to materialize in a few weeks. It is likely, then, that they will have to settle for giving a blank check and receiving many promises in return. We’ll see what happens if that happens.
For the PSOE, joining the amnesty bandwagon is high risk. If he doesn’t, he totally compromises his options to keep Moncloa, but if he does, he will be in the crosshairs of the opposition and part of his own party. The story of the right clinging to the chairs of the Council of Ministers in exchange for letting coup plotters and seditious people go unpunished can mean wear and tear of great magnitude. Former president Aznar’s harangue this week is a good example. But also, the bills are not paid just to get the investiture. The legislature will be tough and the congressional sessions will have to approve budgets and laws which, with this diabolical arithmetic, can be another painful road of thorns.
From the Catalan perspective, it is also not easy to explain to all citizens that the decisive political strength of the 14 pro-independence MPs that make up Esquerra and Junts only serves to obtain an amnesty. If it were to be achieved, at best an amnesty serves to set the counter to zero; it is a point of departure, not of arrival, to be placed in the box before the consultation of November 9, 2014 or the referendum of October 1, 2017, but this does not resolve the political contention between Catalonia and the State because nearly half of Catalans continue to support independence.
In addition to the amnesty, it is important that the pro-independence parties – because no one else will do it – put on the table of the pacts other folders that affect all Catalans in a transversal way, whatever they vote. On the one hand, the complete transfer of Rodalies to reverse a situation that is unacceptable for the 400,000 users who daily suffer in the form of delays and cancellations from the chronic lack of investment in public transport. And, on the other hand, the fiscal deficit, also chronic, perfectly verifiable with the numbers in hand, which weakens the competitiveness of the Catalan economy and punishes essential public services.
Putting all the eggs in the same amnesty basket can be a politically risky strategy and a missed opportunity to improve citizens’ lives. Amnesty is not enough. The legitimate and necessary demand for amnesty is a necessary condition to address the solution to the entrenched political conflict, but it is important that it is accompanied by other demands linked to the economic and social progress of Catalonia. The opportunity is now.
