Ukraine maintains maximum discretion about its military operations, which does not allow to confirm whether it is in the middle of a counter-offensive or in preliminary tentative movements. What was known yesterday came mainly from Russian sources, which logically tipped the scales in their favor.
Ukrainian forces are attacking precisely in the direction of their intended objectives, from Zaporizhzhya and towards the Black Sea coast to cut the so-called land bridge that, occupied by Russian troops, connects the Donbass region with the access on the Crimean peninsula. These are two axes, where Russia says it has repelled attacks: two of which south of Orijiv (in Ukrainian hands) towards the fortified city of Tokmak, which protects the access to Melitopol, and four attacks in the sector of Velika Novosilka, a detachment of the Russian defenses further east.
If the Russian military bloggers said that Western tanks were seen near Tokmak on Thursday and this is true, it would indicate that the Ukrainians had broken through the Russian defenses and penetrated about 5 kilometers from Orijiv. However, the Ukrainians admitted yesterday that they were meeting strong resistance.
Regarding the success or otherwise of the advance, it should be noted that, on Thursday, the Pentagon spoke of “significant losses” for the Ukrainian forces, while the presence of the expected Western tanks in these attacks cannot be confirmed. Just yesterday, Washington announced a new $2.5 billion military aid package that will include ammunition for the Patriot anti-missile system, batteries of Hawk anti-aircraft missiles, 105 and 203 millimeter artillery shells and small drones .
Vladimir Putin, based on the alleged meager results obtained by the Ukrainians, said in a Telegram message that the counter-offensive had begun but that “the Ukrainian troops had not achieved their objective on any of the battlefields”.
The Norwegian seismic research foundation Norsar said in a statement yesterday that there was indeed an explosion at the Kakhovka dam in the early hours of Tuesday. This is how it was recorded, according to Norsar, by a seismic station in Romania at 2:54 a.m. on Tuesday, a time that coincides with reports of the dike breaking.
The Norwegian communication came hours after Ukraine’s intelligence services, the SBU, claimed to have a recording on Thursday of two Russian servicemen it did not identify (nor the circumstances of the conversation) in which authorship is debated of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam. One of them thinks it was the Ukrainians and the other tells him: “They weren’t the ones who screwed her up there. There was our sabotage group. They wanted to scare with the dam, but it didn’t go according to plan, it was bigger than they planned.” True or not, the result of the destruction of the dam and the hydroelectric plant does not appear to have militarily benefited either side. The level of the flood began to descend yesterday in the lower course of the Dnieper.
