Empty Spain will be even emptier in the next fifteen years, and this despite the fact that the total number of inhabitants will grow, because it will do so precisely where the population density is greatest. The Spanish population is growing, and last May the National Institute of Statistics indicated that we had just exceeded 48 million inhabitants.
This recent data is in line with the latest population projection published by the National Institute of Statistics (October 2022), which pointed to a population growth of 25% for the year 2037 for the Balearic Islands, or more than one million new inhabitants for Madrid or Catalonia. In addition, there will be population declines in areas that already suffer from this problem, especially in Asturias, Extremadura and Castilla y León, communities that are part of what is already Empty Spain. And while, although in Ceuta, Melilla and Murcia or, to a lesser extent, in the Balearic Islands or Madrid, there will be more births than deaths, in general throughout the country there will be no vegetative growth, but aging of the average age.
The explanation for all these data is to be found in foreign immigration, which will compensate for the aging of the population and provide the labor force necessary to maintain economic growth. But, unless there are policies that modify the trend, it will do so by going to where, precisely, there is a greater supply of employment.
This is what leads Alberto Del Rey, Professor of Sociology and Communication at the University of Salamanca, to point out the advisability of policies that order immigration from a planned strategy that guides it towards communities where more population is needed. “Spain has never had any migration policy. We have never planned to facilitate the arrival of people who want to settle in certain areas, select people based on labor needs and, of course, offer work to immigrants in those areas, through a certain decentralization”, he explains.
“I live in Salamanca, for example. And in Castilla y León, many jobs are empty. On the other hand, if we do not offer jobs according to the training of certain workers, over time they will go where they are offered a position consistent with that training. For depopulation, the only solution is immigration,” he adds. Rey points out two important aspects of this policy, a more open attitude on the part of the host communities and promoting quality employment in the areas depopulated.
Another possible problem that seems to emerge, given a migratory balance of hundreds of thousands of people each year in areas with very expensive housing, such as the Balearic Islands, Madrid or Catalonia, is precisely that of housing. But Julio Vinuesa, emeritus professor of Human Geography at the Autonomous University of Madrid, points out that we must banish the easy equivalence that associates more immigrant population with new housing construction plans.
“The arrival of immigration does not necessarily mean that many homes are needed. Depends. In reality, the increase in housing demand is more a function of changes in household dynamics, for example the large number of separations, among other factors, ”she points out.
“In addition, the price of housing can have a rejection effect, immigrants do not only come for work. And even more if we take into account that, in fifteen years, there may be changes that allow a greater demarcation between work and place of residence ”, he explains. “In any case, what is needed is a lot of subsidized housing, like two million. But not based on building, but by achieving, through public-private collaboration, that part of the park that is being rented has better prices, and also adapting the old houses to current needs, ”he concludes.
Spain will gain 4,236,335 inhabitants (8.9%), to exceed 51 million people, in 2037, says the INE. The population of the Balearic Islands will increase by 306,142 people, which represents 25% more than those who currently inhabit the islands.
In the Community of Madrid the population will increase by 1,039,391 new citizens. The population growth forecast for Catalonia is similar (1,067,598 new inhabitants). There will also be relative population increases in the Region of Murcia (16.0%) and the Canary Islands (15.5%).
This population increase would be due exclusively to international migration. And given the progressive aging of the population, as indicated by the INE, international immigration will be necessary to maintain the economy, as reflected, for example, in a recent report by the Ombudsman entitled “The contribution of immigration to the Spanish economy [ 2019]”.
