The Euribor will not go up much more, but it will continue to keep those mortgaged with the most difficulties up to sleep for an as yet indeterminate period of time. After its explosive takeoff in April of last year, the index is already very close to peaking and, according to analysts, it could begin to decline by the end of the year, albeit very subtly and without significantly easing the pressure already exerts on millions of families. This is the forecast of the experts consulted by La Vanguardia, who take their precautions: it is what will happen if the ship of the economy does not suffer turbulence.
The pattern is set by the policy of the ECB, which after raising interest rates to 3.5% this week decided to soften the rate of rise and add 0.25 points to the price of money, up to 3.75%. Christine Lagarde did not announce new increases with the forcefulness of other occasions, although analysts expect the next movements to be of the same intensity, up to levels of 4% or 4.25%. From that moment, the decreases would become probable, with the permission of inflation.
“The Euribor already reflects the expectations of how far the ECB can go, and I don’t think it will rise much more than the current 3.84%,” predicts Natalia Aguirre, from Renta4. “We are close to the ceiling despite inflation of 7% in the euro zone, and it should remain at these levels unless the scenario changes a lot.” The benchmark mortgage index reached a maximum of 3.97% in January and for a few days, in the midst of the Credit Suisse crisis, it fell to 3.3%.
All these percentages can make life very difficult for a mortgaged person. According to the simulator of the Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE), an average loan of 150,000 euros at 25 years with a differential of 1% has gone from having a fee of 565 euros a month a year ago to 855 euros if the Euribor is applied. middle of april. It’s almost 300 euros more. The Bank of Spain calculates that, at this point, the vast majority of mortgages have already been reviewed, although the worst is yet to come.
“Now the game is like blackjack: if you go over, you lose,” says economist José Carlos DÃez to describe the risks of an overly aggressive monetary policy by the ECB, especially with regard to mortgages. “I think we are at the ceiling and we will be at 4% levels for a long period,” he says, referring to interest rates. The factors that “gave the inflation shock last year,” such as gas or oil, “are normalizing.” “However, I understand that the ECB must maintain a tough speech because we must not lower our guard.”
The association of financial users Asufin has good news and bad news for those with mortgages. The good news is that “the Euribor ceiling will be reached around the month of June, to continue at those levels until the last quarter of the year, in which the index could already drop.” The bad news is that now comes what he calls the “double-turn increases”: “This is when the big increases in mortgage reviews will occur.”
The calculation that the mortgaged person must assume is that for every 100,000 euros of loan, he must face an increase of 2,000 euros in the annual fee. The first semi-annual reviews only included part of the rise, and from now on the moment of truth arrives, with a message for the Government. It will be seen “if the measures of the code of good banking practices are sufficient,” says Asufin.
The Stability Plan until 2026 sent this week by the Government to Brussels forecasts that the Euribor will begin to fall this year and that it will do so a little more in 2024. The document also figures the percentage of variable-rate mortgages at 70% , despite the fact that, of the new ones that are signed, 70% are at a fixed rate.
Another of the effects of the rise in interest rates that the ECB and the banks themselves are already reporting is the drop in demand for mortgage loans. “The path of interest rate rises has already managed to slow down the economy to a certain extent through demand, and proof of this is the reduction in mortgage credit,” they also indicate from Accuracy. This circumstance may contribute to falls in housing prices, a trend that analysts already consider very probable and that firms such as Singular Bank dare to quantify. His forecast consists of a 6% decline in the price of real estate.
Ombretta Signori, head of strategy at Ofi Invest AM, assumes that ECB interest rates will not rise above 4.25%, which also marks the brake on Euribor rises, but warns that it must still be fought an inflation of services “closely linked to wage dynamics”. “It will probably be the last component to go down.” In DWS they also agree with this forecast and paraphrase Lagarde to predict some new rise: “We are not there yet.”
At the moment, the banks do not report an increase in bank arrears, although the Government does not lower its guard and continues to analyze possible additional measures to the code of good practices already agreed with the entities.
