Tense calm in the markets in the first session after Iran’s direct attack on Israel. European stock markets were trading positive mid-session and are weathering the blow of uncertainty due to an escalation in the region. The Ibex 35 is trading almost flat, while Paris or Frankfurt have seen increases of slightly less than one point. The pan-European EuroStoxx50 index strikes a similar tone. Only London remains in negative territory, with a decrease of 0.40%. The subsequent positive opening on Wall Street has definitely boosted values.
In any case, uncertainty marks the panorama. The US and G7 position, which advocates not escalating the situation, gives some confidence. “While the situation in the Middle East is undoubtedly serious and the risks should not be underestimated, the initial response of European financial markets suggests a perception that, at least for now, stability will prevail,” says IG analyst Sergio Ávila.
In the case of the price of oil, another of the thermometers of investor sentiment, the barrel of Brent – a reference in Europe – was trading at $89.70 in the first hours of the day, with a decrease of 0.8% . On Friday it reached the level of $92 due to the imminence of an attack.
The anticipation of a moderate Israeli response explains the current developments. “At this point, everything will depend on how Israel responds,” says Manuel Pinto, XTB analyst. “As long as Iran and Israel do not head into a direct war conflict, oil could find it difficult to break higher and consolidate $100 per barrel, thanks in part to OPEC, which could increase production, and to the US. Biden There are elections in a few months and any reason that generates increases in oil could cause a crucial loss of votes. In addition, sanctioning Iran would not only cause new increases in the price of a barrel, but would benefit Russia, which could gain a greater share. of the market,” Pinto recalls.
More expensive crude oil can disrupt the fall in inflation. The European Central Bank already warned in its interest rate meeting last week that it is closely monitoring the rise in oil prices.
The behavior is similar in the WTI barrel, a reference value in the US, which is trading around 85 dollars, below the 87.5 of last Friday’s peak. Gold remains stable above $2,350, after soaring to $2,420 on Friday.
In Asia the day has been one of falls, but without large numbers. Tokyo has lost 0.74% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong has lost 0.6%.
