Among other results, the Sánchez-Feijóo debate caused some confusion about the economic health of the country. When it comes to perceptions, responding as we are is not easy: families talk about it as they go. But given that we are 19 million households, the assessments of each one are deceptive: they are reminiscent of those lousy social scientists who use their experience as a synonym for argumentative solvency.
Can there be different truths? To illustrate where we are, I recommend a look at the behavior of Spanish economic agents, published this week by the INE. Let me outline some features.
A relevant aspect is the growing weight of foreign sales: from 29% of GDP in 2000 to more than 42% in the first quarter of 2023, a record high. A gain that reflects that of exports of goods (from 20% to 30% of GDP) and non-tourism services (from 3.6% to 7%), while tourism remains close to 5.5%.
This improvement is expressed in the sign change of financial flows with the rest of the world. Since the 1960s, the balance of the exchange of goods, services, income and current transfers had been, with the exception of recessions, systematically negative: we spent more than we produced, and the difference was lent to us abroad. In 2008, the accumulation of this debt with the rest of the world was close to 100% of the GDP and it was the impossibility of repaying it that put the country at the feet of the horses. But the adjustments made from 2009/10 have brought about a substantial change: instead of demanding funds from the rest of the world to finance part of our domestic spending, since 2011 we have been lending them.
Are these positive macroeconomic realities perceived by families? Some, sure: in the first quarter of 2023, income from household salaries increased by 7.8% annually, reflecting the increase in average wages and employment (some 370,000 new jobs according to the EPA); add to those the balance of property and company income and social benefits (particularly pensions), which have also increased substantially. And, subtracting taxes and consumption, savings emerge: from -1.5% of family income in 2022/Q1 to 0.9% in 2023/Q1. It’s not bad either.
How are we then? Depending on how you look at it: as the classic said, everyone talks about the fair as it goes. Although many were not doing well yesterday, they are not doing well today and probably will not be doing well tomorrow: we have spent decades with more than 20% of poor families and close to 30% of the children residing in them. But this being true, we know what it means for the country as a whole to do badly: we all lost between 2008 and 2012, although some more than others. But in this July of uncertain future, that is not the case: to Caesar, what belongs to Caesar.
