The economy holds. The pace slows down in the summer, with a GDP increase of 0.3%, but this percentage is only one tenth less than what it grew in the previous quarter. In this way, the slowdown forecast for the second part of the year is much milder than expected.
National demand, and especially the contribution of private consumption, are the bases of this GDP growth registered in these three months, according to data published this morning by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Specifically, household consumption increases 1.4% in this quarter compared to the previous one. This is 0.5 points more than in the previous quarter and represents a chain of three quarters of growth. Despite inflation, consumption maintains.
The positive data from the EPA released yesterday, with a new record for the employed population, already predicted better results than expected for the growth of the economy, and they have been confirmed.
It is true that in recent days there have been forecasts pointing to minimal growth in this third quarter; even the daily GDP indicator managed by Airef even indicated a contraction of 0.2%. However, in the end, the INE data show a much more limited moderation in growth, adding up to a GDP increase of 0.3%.
With these data, and at the expense of what happens in the last three months of the year, annual growth of around 2.4% is practically guaranteed. This is what all the indicators point to. In this way, the picture of GDP in 2023 is one of powerful growth in the first six months, which then moderates in the second part of the year. When this slowdown will be most noticeable will be in 2024, the year in which forecasts point to much lower growth, around 1.7%.
Despite inflation and its impact on domestic pockets, household consumption is holding up better than expected. In the first two quarters of the year it grew by 0.3% and 0.9% respectively, which can be explained in part by the use of the savings cushion accumulated during the pandemic and also by those derived from the good performance of employment.
For the Ministry of Economy, this data confirms “the differential growth of the Spanish economy with respect to the main countries in the euro zone and is in line with the macroeconomic forecasts included in the Budget Plan.”
