Everything that is happening and will happen in Ukraine in the coming months or even years shows that Europe is recovering the security system it had during the cold war to defend itself against the Russian threat. That is why the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelenski, pressures his western allies for a quick incorporation into NATO. He knows that it is impossible while the country is still at war, but he considers that there is no alternative.
The allies will meet next July in Vilnius for their annual conference and there will be no more crucial and thorny issue on the table than Ukraine’s accession.
Once military support has been guaranteed for as long as it is necessary, the allies are now considering what role Ukraine should have in the defense of Europe, and joining the Alliance is not the only way out, perhaps not even the most convenient one.
The Pentagon is already working on the design of the Ukrainian armed forces of the future and the model is none other than Israel, a small country that does not belong to any military organization and that, even so, has been able to defend itself from enemies a priori much more powerful.
The Ukrainian government last month approved a program called the Israel-inspired Kyiv Security Package. The goal is to develop an autonomous security system capable of deterring Russia. The Kremlin must be clear that it will not be able to achieve its objectives by force because Ukraine will have vastly superior technology and military tactics.
Ukraine acknowledges that reaching this defensive stronghold may take several decades, and would feel much more secure within the Alliance in the meantime.
Kyiv’s official position is to ask for entry. “Today, we will not accept anything other than accession,” says Hennadiy Maksak, director of Ukrainian Prism, the most important Ukrainian think tank and a source of constant advice to the Zelensky government. Yesterday, in Barcelona, ​​during a seminar at CIDOB, he made it clear that “Ukraine’s neutrality is not an option.”
No one in Ukraine forgets that in 1994 Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom pledged to guarantee its security if it gave up the Soviet nuclear arsenal on its territory. He fulfilled his part of the agreement and sent Russia the atomic weapons he had. The Kremlin, however, did not do its part. It invaded Ukraine in 2014 and did it again on February 25, 2022.
“Today there is no security guarantee that could lead us to a ceasefire,†Maksak admits. “In the past we already accepted guarantees that were useless,” he adds.
NATO should modify its statutes to admit a country at war, something that is highly unlikely. Hence, Maksak calls for “a road map from now” to facilitate this entry when peace is reached.
The roadmap is in line with Pentagon plans and comments from both French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen. While accession is resolved, Ukraine becomes a defensive bulwark. The commitment to this objective is long-term and is shielded against the rotation of powers in the allied capitals.
Once again, the model is Israel and the agreement it has with the United States since the moment of independence in 1948. Thanks to this sine die commitment, Israel has developed a powerful military industry, with state-of-the-art technology, capable of offering its security services intelligence a clear advantage in the region.
Ukraine has a significant military industry. In Dnipro, for example, the Soviet Union manufactured intercontinental ballistic missiles, while Antonov planes came from Kyiv. One of them is still the largest in the world. There is a powerful aerospace industry in Kharkiv, and startups and digital service companies are proliferating throughout the country. The bases seem to be laid for the country to become the Israel of Europe.
Until then, however, Kyiv is dependent on military aid from its allies, weapons that always arrive in fewer quantities and more slowly than it would like. In any case, the announcement last month to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets is a clear sign that there is a serious commitment to Ukraine’s defense beyond the specific needs of the announced counteroffensive.
The Kyiv government is concerned, however, that the weapons and training of its military will come too late. The longer the war drags on, the more likely it is to become entrenched, that is, to consolidate the division of the country, as happened in 2014.
Julia Kazdobina, head of the security program at Prism, believes that the best way to defeat Russia and do it as soon as possible is to admit Ukraine into NATO without waiting for the end of hostilities. “I think we should enter now, during the war,” she said yesterday at CIDOB.
“That Russia is losing – he added – does not mean that Ukraine is winning. Ukraine will win when it joins NATO, which is exactly what Russia is trying to prevent.”
The allies are trying to ensure that aid to Ukraine is not seen as a NATO declaration of war on Russia. They fear the escalation of the conflict. The risk of a nuclear confrontation cannot be ruled out. Russia has the largest arsenal of atomic weapons in the world.
Kazdobina, however, considers these precautions unnecessary. “As much as NATO insists that it is not at war with Russia, Russia is at war with NATO. But Russia does not want a head-on clash with NATO. She knows that she would have to lose. What he seeks is to weaken it.â€
Based on this reasoning, Kazdobina believes that it is highly unlikely that Russia would use the atomic weapon. “Russia fears NATO’s reaction, and NATO must take advantage of this to admit Ukraine now.”
Russia’s great strategic advantage, aside from nuclear weapons, is the size of its armed forces. Ukraine will never be able to have as many soldiers or as many combat planes as Russia, but it is a very large territory, enough to have a dissuasive anti-aircraft and ground defense, as Israel does.
Turning Ukraine into the Israel of Europe will not solve the problem of the Russian threat. Without a security system in Europe that includes Russia, there will be no peace on the continent. Reaching this framework agreement, however, today seems a very distant goal, as it still is for most Arab countries to recognize Israel.
Meanwhile, the best defense is the best deterrence and the best guarantee of sustainable security.
